The CFP committee will release their 3 set of rankings later tonight & all eyes will be on that #4 spot. LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson all won handily, so the top 3 continues to be crystal clear. Who will be in the fourth spot has now become a bit of a murky mess, however. With both Baylor & Minnesota suffering their first losses of the season this past Saturday, there are now 7 teams that are all 9-1 and will more-than-likely comprise #s 4-10 in tonight's third set of CFP rankings. The real questions to be answered are who is most deserving & how exactly do we distinguish who that team is?
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Georgia will most likely stay in the committee's #4 spot, given that they were 4th last week and went on the road and defeated a very good Auburn squad, 21-14. The big knock on the Bulldogs, however, is there one loss. Their 20-17 home loss to a South Carolina team that has now slumped to just 4-7 on the season continues to put a giant stain on an otherwise glowing resume. Let's not forget that the Gamecocks were forced to go to a backup freshman QB in that one - and he outplayed Jake Fromm & company throughout the game. The resume might be there, but the Dawgs' don't deserve a pass for their lackluster showing against SC. Out of all of the contenders for that #4 spot, this loss is by far the worst of the group. For that reason, Georgia shouldn't be an automatic lock for that #4 spot.
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Ok, so who has the "best" loss (if there is such a thing) then? Well, Alabama's home-loss to clear-cut #1 LSU by 5 points certainly is not a bad loss by any means, and shouldn't weigh them down too much. The problem with the Crimson Tide though, is their much-documented lack of an overall resume. They still only have one "quality" win to date, which means they have the weakest resume of any of the 7 contenders for that #4 spot. The efficiency ratings love the Tide though, as they currently rank 2nd in FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) & 3rd in team efficiency (TE) ratings (according to ESPN stats & information). No "bad" losses, no "marque" wins though, but really impressive efficiency metrics - what to do with the Crimson Tide?
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One team that probably isn't garnering as much attention as they should are the Penn State Nittany Lions - who outside of Georgia - clearly have the best resume out of any of these contenders to date. With victories over 8-2 Michigan, at 7-3 Iowa, and now 7-3 Indiana, PSU boasts a trio of quality wins that are looking even better after Michigan throttled Michigan State on Saturday, and Iowa upset Minnesota. Their only loss is also not a "bad" one by any means - by 5 points - at 9-1 Minnesota. That combination clearly reads as a top 5 or 6 team, but the efficiency metrics aren't quite as high on the Nittany Lions, as they are currently 9th according FEI & 8th in team efficiency. Those numbers fall more in-line with where PSU is currently landing in the polls & last week's CFP rankings - right at 8 or 9. So, again, what to do with the Nittany Lions? A legitimate argument can be made for them up at #4, and all the way down to #9.
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The two Pac-12 teams on the list are very similar in that neither are getting much of a boost to their respective resumes from a conference that has been incredibly average as a whole. Only 7-4 USC & 6-4 Washington have winning records at the moment, and are followed by a slew of 5-5 & 4-6 teams. The efficiency metrics love the Utes, as Utah ranks 5th according to both FEI & TE. The problem though, is a very weak overall resume. With only two "quality" victories - over a pair of 6-4 teams - Utah's overall resume is especially lacking. They badly need a "marque" victory to cement things, which can only come in the form of Oregon in the Pac-12 Title game.
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The Ducks on the other hand, rank just 12th according to the efficiency metrics, but at least have a leg-up on the Utes in the resume department, thanks to their 56-24 win @ USC (Utah lost @ USC 30-23). The other factor working in Oregon's favor, is their one loss happened to come on a neutral field at the end of August in the season-opener to a really good Auburn team. That loss is not a bad one by any means. The lackluster efficiency ratings however, mean they probably need a "marque" victory as well - again, with that lone opportunity being against Utah in the Pac 12 Title game.
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Oklahoma looked awful for 2 1/2 games before coming out of the locker rooms in Waco and outscoring the undefeated Bears 24-0 in the second half on Saturday night. The Sooners get a big boost for knocking off 9-1 Baylor, but the rest of their resume consists of victories over a pair of 6-4 teams in Texas & Iowa State. Their loss at Kansas State a couple of weeks ago, however, was an ugly one (even if the final score only read 48-41). They were blown out for most of that game. What hurts the Sooners a bit more is the fact that K-State just lost at home to Big XII cellar-dwellar West Virginia, dropping them to just 6-4 on the season. When it comes to the efficiency ratings, OU is right in line with Penn State, ranking 8th & 9th in FEI & TE, respectively. Based on all of that data, it seems as though the Sooners should fall somewhere between 6-9 depending on how much value you give Saturday night's victory at Baylor.
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Lastly, Minnesota had their dream ride come to an end on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa, falling to the Hawkeyes 23-19 in a tough, physical Big TEN West battle. While the Gophers are 9-1 and own maybe the BEST victory out of anyone on this list with their 31-26 win over 9-1 Penn State, the rest of the resume is very soft. With zero notable road victories, and only a win over 6-4 Illinois to add to the resume, the Golden Gophers just don't have enough to warrant top 6 or 7 consideration. The efficiency ratings aren't a fan of them either, as they rank just 13th in FEI & 19th in TE. A win over Wisconsin to close out the season would clinch a spot in the Big TEN Title game & add another "marque" win to the resume, so the Gophers aren't out of it by any means, but they will need to take down the Badgers & then either Ohio State or Penn State in the Big TEN Title game to get back into the conversation for a top 4 spot.
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Here is a breakdown of everyone's current resumes, including "quality" wins, losses, and efficiency ratings - FEI for Fremeau Efficiency Index & TE for Total Team Efficiency:
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GEORGIA (9-1)
FEI: (7)
TE: (6)
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"Quality" Wins:
@ Florida (9-2) W 24-17
vs Notre Dame (8-2) W 23-17
@ Auburn (7-3) W 21-14
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Losses:
vs South Carolina (4-7) L 17-20 2OT
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ALABAMA (9-1)
FEI: (2)
TE: (3)
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"Quality" Wins:
@ Texas A&M (7-3) W 47-28
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Losses:
vs LSU (10-0) L 41-46
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PENN STATE (9-1)
FEI: (9)
TE: (8)
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"Quality" Wins:
@ Iowa (7-3) W 17-12
vs Michigan (8-2) W 28-21
vs Indiana (7-3) W 34-27
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Losses:
@ Minnesota (9-1) L 26-31
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OREGON (9-1)
FEI: (12)
TE: (12)
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"Quality" Wins:
@ USC (7-4) W 56-24
@ Washington (6-4) W 35-31
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Losses:
vs Auburn (7-3) L 21-27
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UTAH (9-1)
FEI: (5)
TE: (5)
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"Quality" Wins:
@ Washington (6-4) W 33-28
@ BYU (6-4) W 30-12
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Losses:
@ USC (7-4) L 23-30
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OKLAHOMA (9-1)
FEI: (8)
TE: (9)
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"Quality" Wins:
@ Baylor (9-1) W 34-31
vs Iowa State (6-4) W 42-41
@ Texas (6-4) W 34-27
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Losses:
@ Kansas State (6-4) L 41-48
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MINNESOTA (9-1)
FEI: (13)
TE: (19)
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"Quality" Wins:
vs Penn State (9-1) W 31-26
vs Illinois (6-4) W 40-17
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Losses:
@ Iowa (7-3) L 19-23
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As always, thank you all for the support- I would love to read your thoughts in the comments section below - who do you believe deserves to be #4 at the moment & how would you rank #s 4-10?
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*-FEI statistics courtesy of footballoutsiders.com
*-TE statistics courtesy of espn.com
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