There are still 3 months to go till the Clash of Titans will happen on the 28th of April 2019. While it is a fast course, the unpredictable weather and the turns and twists makes this event very much unsuitable for a world record at present times. 2016 rain, kind of cold and showers. 2017 mild weather with a slight breeze. 2018 the hottest year so far. Temperature ranges and wetness change how different shoes grip on different surfaces. That can alter pace, effort and fatigue.
The fastest finishing is from Kipchoge in 2016 what is the 4th fastest marathon time in the world 2:03:05. I think if the temps were staying low as they were, with no water on the road, he could have run faster. In 2017 Daniel Wanjiru won with 2:05:48. In 2018 Kipchoge took it back with 2:04:17 as that was a very hot year.
Straight Predictions
At this moment there is Mohamed Farah, Elioud Kipchoge, Tola Shura Kitata.
While Kipchoge is the least raced, probably the hungriest. He is a satisfied business man, but when running comes into the picture, he is smart as. No distractions just Jedi mind- focus !
Farah can access all kind of tricks and tech to keep his running up to the top of the top. We talk about under water and alter-G treadmills, adjustable high altitude housing, nutritionist and massage therapists and all kind of gadgets to adjust his training to the day's biometrics.
However, when you can run with superhero athletes, even if unknown, in Eldoret and Kaptagat 52weeks a year, that is different. No distractions. No news. No social media. One goal in mind. The rest is just lying down and reading, cleaning up athlete's facilities and talking to other runners. Of course sleeping and eating the highest quality food ! Yes that counts. Unaltered freshly harvested, local fruits, grains and vegetables. It is not organic. It is just food, coming from the source straight to your plate ! All at altitude !
The Ethiopian Kitata is like 12 years younger than his fellow athletes. Fearless, but already have great mentality. His first marathon was 2:08. Then for two years he actually ran 4 marathons a year, what is a lot and he stayed around 2:10 and 2:06. In 2018 he stepped up his game, cutting back the races and finishing London in 2:04 and New York 2:06. On paper at long distances he is 90 seconds faster than Farah in London.
These three are at this moment the most interesting possible winners. I think on a perfect injury free day Kipchoge is the only prediction I would make as winning goes. Kitata could be lucky and if can cover the surges he might fend off Farah for a second place. If Eliud feels off the day and sits back, the final sprint of Farah, if can keep the legs, is a killer. Not necessarily the speed or the acceleration what is so different, but the final kick experience what he accumulated in the previous decade. Those moments of putting all out and experiencing winning and sometimes loosing is crucial in his memories.
Andy Vernon and Callum Hawkins. Brit runners. Grit runners. While they are nowhere near the times obligatory to win, they are strong as ! If weather turns bad or too good, surface will be crappy, 2 aid-stations will be closed off, they won't hesitate to pull off a 2:08 / 2:10 and take the win over the exhausted front runners. In marathon the times are there, they are great, but a win is a win. It is in a storm or 45°C degrees, it stays a win !
Comments