Any player that’s drafted is a risk but these are top players that I think will regress this year. I thought about a lot of different things when I made this list like offseason workouts, arrest, new team, and how old the player is. With that said draft whoever you want to draft but take my thoughts into account.
Dion Lewis (Tennessee Titans)
Drafting Dion Lewis is kind of tricky because people will be drafting him based on his success in New England. New England’s offense is different every week and stats from running backs can be big in running or catching depending on the week and the opponent. In Tennessee, they are expecting to double Lewis’s snap count from what his load was in New England. This can be a big change for him. his body may not be able to handle. Remember this is a guy who has had his share of injuries in this league. If Tennessee splits the touches down the middle with Lewis and Henry then Lewis can be valuable to the team but not to your fantasy team.
Kareem Hunt (Kansas City Chiefs)
Hunt was my first overall pick last season which was a steal at pick 12. He played extremely well the first 4 games and last 5 games of the season. The middle of the season didn’t treat him very well. I don’t know how much of that was because of Andy Reid’s gameplan or him just taking a step back. Kansas City is looking for Hunt to be a 300-touch running back this year. Is this even realistic? It’s a lot of mouths for first year starter Patrick Mahomes to feed. Tyreke Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins. Where will Kareem Hunt fit in this bunch. He should be the workhorse of the offense based on what we’ve seen he can do. Hunt ADP is sitting at 10 right now. A couple of off the field incidents in the offseason makes me think that Hunt isn’t completely focused on football.
Deshaun Watson (Houston Texans)
This pick may come as a shock because a lot of experts are considering him a “top tier QB”. Although he has a lot of things working for him like QB coach Bill O’Brian, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and a J.J. Watt lead defense. With those weapons who couldn’t succeed? Im not worried about his weapons im more worried about him. Through 7 games last year he was the league’s MVP as well as rookie of the year. With that said there wasn’t any film of him in Bill O’Brians system. With film on Watson and time to prepare I think coach Bill Belichick will lay down a blueprint for teams to use that will slow Watson down this season. Deshaun Watson will be great and will be a tier 1 QB just not this year.
Frank Gore (Miami Dolphins)
Frank Gore has been a force for a long time in the fantasy world but my friends it’s over. The days of Gore being a player you spend a pick on are over. Frank Gore signing with the Miami Dolphins is very similar to Marshawn Lynch signing to the Oakland Raiders. Hometown hero coming back to finish his career at home. This is Kenyan Drake’s team going forward.
Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Ok so this is hard because his last 5 seasons have been insane. He is pretty much unstoppable on the field. I don’t know if the Madden Curse is still a thing but I do believe that it hurts teams and players somehow. Brown has looked great this year in training camp. He is the best receiver to draft but I would go discounted and go with JuJu Smith-Schuster. There is plenty more options with that first-round draft pick.
Written by: Marcus Hemingway
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