Well the opening night of my Beat the Bookie Blog did NOT go as planned. I broke down and previewed the New Orleans Saints at the Dallas Cowboys yesterday and I thought I had a great angle. Which was that the Saints #1 Run Defense was a fake number due to all the passing that teams do to keep up with Drew Brees. So I bet on the Ezekiel Elliot OVER 86 Rushing Yards on the thought that the Dallas Cowboys would NOT abandon the run and instead would feed Elliot the ball.

Well, I was part right. He got 23 carries. That should have been PLENTY to go OVER the 86 yards. But the Saints Run Defense, proved their worth and held him to 76 yards.

But the sun will always rise another day, and that day is TODAY! Let’s get back on that horse and ride baby!

I have pinpointed a great bet for tonight’s action. The 25th ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs will play at the Dayton Flyers tonight in College Basketball. The over/under is what I have my eye on in this one. It is currently sitting at 136, which is a pretty low number in College Basketball. Most over/unders sit around the 145 mark on average.

But these are two terrible offenses that can’t shoot. Take a look at these numbers.

They are two of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country and they both rank really badly in points per game.

The leading scorer heading into this game is Quinndary Weatherspoon. He is averaging 17 points per game. But he is only averaging 12.5 points per game in his last 3 for the Bulldogs and the Flyers don’t have anyone averaging over 14.5 points. That all spells very well for the “UNDER 136.”

Dayton has a solid home court with loud fans and with this game being televised on the CBS Sports Network, it should be a packed house with some great defense.

Good luck with you gambling picks and here is mine for the night!