Tennis fans have been spoilt this year with the countless tournaments that have featured Federer, Djokovic and Nadal. Now it's the Chinese fans that get to enjoy the spectacle of two of the best hard court players that have ever graced the ATP circuit - Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Yes Nadal won't feature in Shanghai as he's resting his knee ahead of the London Finals in November. Nevertheless adding to lineup is the Tower (Number 4 in the world Del Potro) plus a whole host of other big top 10 players meaning you've got yourself another mouth watering masters that promises many eye candy matches and moments.
Let's take a look at the chances of Federer and see how far the defending champion can go in this year's event...
Two Major Threats to Federer's Path to the Final...
Most bookies and fans alike have fallen out of love with Federer's ability to win titles this year and understandably so, since winning yet another Australian Open in January many thought he would go on to win Wimbledon until he crashed out against Kevin Anderson in the Quarter Finals. In between those two grand slam events he failed to capture either of the Masters Titles at Indian Wells or Miami, plus he was defeated in Cincinatti after Wimbledon, before his shock exit in the US Open capped off a troubled summer. Thus Federer has only managed to win one ATP grass and one hard court tournament since the Australian Open. It's been a pretty poor year so far compared to 2017 where at this point Federer had claimed both the Australian Open and Wimbledon titles plus two big ATP 1000 masters events.
Federer's Losses in 2018
vs Del Potro: 1-2 (Indian Wells Masters, US, Final, March)
vs Thanasi Kokkinakis: 1-2 (Miami Masters, US, First Round, March)
vs Borna Coric: 1-2 (Halle, Germany, Final, June)
vs Kevin Anderson: 2-3 (Wimbledon, England, Quarter Final, July)
vs Novak Djokovic 1-2 (Cincinnati Masters, US, Final, August)
vs John Millman 1-3 (US Open, 1/8 Finals, September)
Can Federer Stop the Rot Shanghai?
Can he make up for his poor series of results this month by defending his Shanghai Masters title? I can already hear the naysayers and even many Fed-Ex supporters murmur words of caution. With Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro also competing in the event who can blame them?
Federer was convincingly beaten in straight sets in a Masters Final by Djokovic less than two months ago in Cincinnati. Against Del Potro he bowed out in the final too in Indian Wells in March where he was defeated 2-1. Those two ATP Masters 1000 final defeats are the reason why many are pondering whether Federer can defend his title here which he won last year when he overwhelmed Nadal in the final. Then we saw his new more aggressive style of play come into it's prime vs the Spanish Bull.
However after watching Federer loose to Djokovic in Cincinnati this year it's easy to discount his chances here and just go with Djokovic to win in the final, the Serbian has come pretty much from nowhere to almost seal the 2nd place ranking ahead of the London finals in November. Yet anyone watching the Laver Cup this year would have been given a clue to why he could possibly turn it around here against Djokovic. Federer looked back to his best in Chicago - the way he defeated Nick Kygrios and John Isner (especially big John) showed he was perhaps over his Millman US Open hangover. At the same time Djokovic was rather exposed in his singles game vs Anderson and went down 2-1.
Defense on Two Fronts
I wouldn't be surprised to see Federer defend his Shanghai Masters, especially given the extra motivation of the Swiss star slipping down the rankings. He needs all the points he can get his hands on to salvage a third place position behind Djokovic. Maintaining second place won't be possible if Djokovic reaches the final Shanghai Final, even if he Federer beats him, Djokovic still moves up into second place now.
But if if he wins, it will mean he is close behind the Serb in 3rd place and could overtake him once again at the ATP Finals in London. But if Federer loses in Shanghai in the final to Djokovic there will be a greater point gap between the players because Federer is the one defending the 1000 points as the champion in Shanghai last year. Losing in the final to Djokovic would create a 1000 point gap between the two players. Federer also has to defend 500 points later this month in the ATP Basel Indoor 500 tournament. So he if loses that tournament too he could be even more points adrift of Djokovic before the London finals.
For me Federer's match against Danil Medvedev tomorrow will tell us a lot. If he manages to comfortably beat the surging Russian (who was almost beaten today by a Wild Card Chinese player ranked over 200th in the world) he will have a spring board to plough through to the final. Del Potro will almost certainly meet Federer along the way to the final and that's the real potential banana skin for him. With Del Potro beating him earlier this year and robbing Federer of another Indian Wells Masters title he will have no fear of Federer in Shanghai. In fact he had the beating of him last year at the US Open too so Federer won't be taking a potential Del Potro match lightly.
So for me if Federer can get through to the final, judging how he played in the Laver Cup I'd still give him a 50/50 chance to defeat Djokovic.
Therefore here I am sticking my neck on the line once more for a tournament winner, I am going with Federer over Djokovic!
Prediction: Federer to Win Shanghai Masters 1000 - Successfully Defend His Title
Federer in Action Tomorrow
Federer vs Medvedev is the top billing match tomorrow where both players will enjoy the cooler night conditions out on court. The Russian may have claimed the Tokyo ATP title last week upsetting home favourite Nishikori and the Japanese fans but he hasn't got the weapons to upset Federer in the same manner. Both are flat hitters of the ball but Federer has too much substance to his game to be troubled by the young Russian.
Watch: Federer Beat Nadal Last Year at the ATP Shanghai 1000 Masters Final
Other Players to Watch for Tomorrow in Shanghai: Underdog Tips
Georgian Dynamite
Those who noticed that an unknown Georgian player managed to win last weeks Beijing ATP Title against Del Potro, will know he's a threat to anyone in that sort of form. This was the World Number 34 before the tournament and he managed to beat World Number 14 Kyle Edmund and World Number 4 Del Potro in straight sets, what a result! He hit's the ball so flat and forcefully he can smother any opponent if he maintains his consistency.
Any doubts Basilashvili couldn't back that ATP title win up in the first match in Shanghai were soon put to bed as he swept aside Denis Shapovalov today 6-2, 6-2 - what a result just two days after winning in Beijing! He plays Alexander Zverev tomorrow. That's going to be a great match to watch, lookout for another possible upset there, especially given Zverev already crashed out of Beijing to world number 56 Malek Jaziri. He's vulnerable right now.
Prediction: Basilashvili to Win vs Zverev: Odds: 3.75
Young American Scrapper
Mackenzie McDonald is ranked 78th in the world, at 23 he could be in a better place but it could be worse too, especially considering he recorded the biggest win of his career yet when he beat world number 20 and big server Milos Raonic 2-1 in the opening round yesterday. The American is looking to take the momentum he gained from his Wimbledon run into this masters. He also had to come through 2 qualification rounds against tricky opponents in Shanghai so confidence levels will be sky high going into his match against Spain's Roberto Bautista-Agut tomorrow.
Bautista-Agut has an eagle eye for painting the lines from the baseline and won't give as much away as Raonic did yesterday but his serve is not as big as Raonic's so he is definitely more breakable than the Canadian and has been upset plenty of times this year by questionable opponents.
Prediction: McDonald to Win vs Bautista-Agut: Odds: 3.40
Comments