This is a weekly overview of my personal sports trading results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League documenting my journey toward long-term profit with some insights on my overall approach.
Plenty of good things last week with some solid results reaching a new personal season-high profit. At the same time, I also have a lot of things to work on.
To start off with the good things, the matches seem to have more normal results again which makes me have a lot more confidence in my handicapping again. I'm somewhat in a flow and the majority of my predictions on how matches will play out have been spot on. I'm also able to keep very disciplined like a robot going at it match-by-match following a tight routine which I would say is a key skill to make a profit with sports Betting.
The results especially on the pre-game bets and position I get myself into have also been extremely solid, I have been expecting some regression to the mean but for now, almost everything continues to just win. I very much realize this is overextended and not sustainable and at some point, there will be a major drop in the pre-game results which would perfectly normal. I just continue to go at it the same way I have been though.
The bold pre-game selections I put up in my preview posts went 7W-2L-2P and are now sitting at +18.52% ROI after 127 bets.
There is always room for improvement though and the main working point right now is clearly my stakes. I have somehow reverted to almost flat betting small stakes as those are extremely comfortable while it feels almost impossible to commit to big bets. I had multiple occasions during the matches where I felt very strong about certain bets but either didn't get in or waited just a minute too long missing out as they all ended up winning. The average bet size was around 0.27 units and I will continue to work toward getting that up toward 0.4 units at least.
Copytip
With the good form and the matches seemingly having gone back to normal, I intend to start taking bigger bets again both on Copytip and in BTC also sharing them in the SBC Discord Channel
Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021
01/10/2020 Antwerp +0 @ 2.500 FT 1-0 LOST
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON
The chart is looking really good at the moment but at the same time, not all too much is needed to bring things back below the expected profit. Having +3 Unit week means there will also be -3 unit weeks and I'm only around 4 units clear to stay above the pink line. Anyway, it's nice to have reached a new season-high. I once read that in sports betting you are expected (as a winning player) to be at your top profit only 1 in 19 days. this means if you have an upswing during a couple of weeks reaching a new high 5 times, you can easily spend the next 100 days below those tops. I can confirm this from my personal experience. I have said this so many times, but volume and how much of it is needed is what only a very select group of sports bettors really understand.
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