It's safe to say that I'm not exactly "In The Zone" right now when it comes down to betting having had losing weeks 6 out of the last 7 weeks despite still being close to the profit I expect to make in the long run. Betting pretty much is a struggle between the emotions that want to bet for "winners" (usually favorites, overs & low odds) and the rational mind who forces itself to take the less comfortable choices (usually unders and underdogs avoiding low odds). Finding some kind of balance can be quite tricky and that is what I am currently struggling with.
If anything, the sharp money that moves the lines has been razor-sharp as of late and going against any kind of move or strange-looking valuation where the team 'out-of-form' away is made the favorite.
Pre-Game bets from the Previews are having a dip right now even though it's barely noticeable in the chart since it has gone up so much all season long. I also do keep things rather selective at the moment. I'll see how it goes in the coming weeks and will just continue to grind them out.
Copytip
I'm still taking a low profile when it comes down to taking bigger bets also taking them on Copytip while sharing on the SBC Discord Channel and on my Twitter (@costanzabets) as official bets.
Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021
11/12/2020 Racing Genk +0 @ 1.945 FT 1-0 LOST
01/11/2020 Antwerp +0 @ 2.500 FT 1-0 LOST
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON
Right now over the entire season, the profit is almost exactly where it is to be expected, the next couple of weeks will be key as I would hate to fall below it which is not that unlikely given the current form I'm in. I also continue to raise the absolute amount of my small (flat) stake and have over the last month gone from 0.24 to now 0.40 units for a small bet which is where I will keep it for a while now. I also haven't had all too many bigger positions and also likely will keep it that way unless I manage to get in a good flow having a much better read on all the teams and the situations.
Week 23 already starts tonight and the league continues at a furious pace. I'm not sure I will be able to make a post a preview tonight but I will for sure share my view and bets on the SBC Discord
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