The Jupiler League has started with their short winter break. The next round is planned for the weekend of 18 January. Due to the 2 rounds close to each other, I decided to write a results post when both round were finished, which is now.
The winter break with the opening of the tranfer window will be interesting. For the proud leader Genk it will be a scary period. Will they be capable of keeping on their star players on board or will some force a transfer to a more compelling competition. The rumor mill is working overtime. If everything is true they had an offer for the Defensive midfielder Bergen of 25 million euro from Tottenham with the guarantee that Bergen may finish the season in Genk. Also Monaco has offered 55 million for Trossard and Samata.
Club Brugge and for sure Anderlecht this is a really important transfer window. Due to the 7 points gap for Brugge and Anderlecht desperately needing to get into Play off 1! The latest team needs a real quality injection. The chairman already promised that he is willing to invest around 30 mil euros into the squad!
Genk already made it's first incoming tranfer! Genk always buys players for next year. It is a time where young player do get time to mature and to improve!
As you can see it was not the best round for the prediction model. Both models did write red figures. The 6th losing week in a row and the third worst week of this season!
You can see in the 1X2 markets that odds are everything. Both models did have a hit rate of 50% but both markets are in the red. Both models also failed to get an overall hit rate of 50% :(
This more like it should be. Both models with nice green figures. A solid ROI of 18,61% for the model based on the last 3 seasons! It kicks the ass of the model based on the current season. Both models also at least predicted 1 correct score result, which always helps.
But like we all know the bigger picture is important. Is one of the models capable of making a profit of the complete regular season, that's the question!
For the moment both models fail to do so. The model based on the last 3 season results still has a change of turning red into green. The loss is recoverable!
It has 4 markets in the green and if the correct score market would be eliminated it would be in the green figures. Besides the over/under market based on a correct score it has a hit rate of more than 50%. But still this market is in the green. This is thanks to the unders. The unders often pay above odds of 2 which is something where bettors don't like to bet on!
The model based on the current season results is already lost for the season. With 9 more rounds to go, it should make a profit in all 9 weeks to have a slim chance of getting into the green! It has no market into the green and even with the correct score market eliminated it still would be miserable.
9 more round to go!