Times goes fast, we are entering round 5 of the Jupiler Pro League competition. This week we will have a great game with Club Brugge vs Anderlecht.
I also have changed the second model to the games already played this season, in stead of the ones from last season. I will not track these results yet this week. This will happen in round 6.
Overall statistics Jupiler Pro League: 2018/2019
Still not enough home wins compared to the stats of the last 3 season and way too many draws.
In line with this trend the home teams do only score in 68% of the games, compared to an average of almost 80%. This could be caused that in the past 4 match days, lots of top teams did visit the relegation candidates.
The over 2.5 is almost on par, but the over 3.5 is quite impressive! If you bookmakers are giving odds for an over 2.5 goals above 2, it is almost always a value bet according to these statistics!
Round 5
Let's see what the model does predict for this weekend games!
What do we have in this table?
We have the columns 1, X and 2. In this columns you will find the % change on this outcome. So 1 means a home win, X a draw and 2 and away team win.
BTTS stands for Both team to score and O 2.5 Y stand for the chance on more than 2.5 goals!
For each games, you can see the prediction according to the last 3 seasons (Poisson Overall) and according the current season.
The model has some problem with the prediction for Antwerp vs Waasland-Beveren because only 4 games of Waasland-Beveren are in the model.
Attention
The model is based on statistics, just use it to enrich-en your knowledge of the Belgian Jupiler Pro League. I would not advice to follow it blindly!
Also please always bet carefully. Only bet with money you can afford to loose. Remember that only 5% of the world wide betters are winners on the long term!
Cheers,
Peter
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