Well the previous round in the Jupiler Pro League has some strange results. Lots of upsets took place and this of course is never good for a statistical model. Still, I am pretty happy with the results of this week.

Round 19

Club brugge once again failed to win. Giving Genk the opportunity to increase their lead. The last 4 occasions that Brugge had to play before Genk and wasn't capable of winning, Genk didn't profit from it! This time they did!

Anderlecht did loose again. As a result they did fire their head coach. This was no suprise. When the current president bought the club, he already wasn't fan of the head coach and with the gap increasing to 11 point and 6 losses in 19 games, the decision was made.

At the bottom Lokeren did upset St Truiden and Waasland-Beveren Antwerp. Due to this lots of team are back dreaming of saving their ass, while other are starting to feel the heat!

Let's see how the Nyls did perform.

Well both models made a loss. But there where also some great results!

The Over/Under based on the correct score prediction did hit a home run. 8 out of 8 correct with a profit of 16.9 units. If I would exclude the correct score prediction from the model based on the last 3 seasons, it would have made a small profit.
Most markets based on the correct score prediction did fail to deliver again :(

The model based on the current season result was capable of predicting 1 correct score but that wasn't enough to save the round. In most markets it couldn't even predict 50% of the games correct, which of course has to do with the big number of upsets!

Season 2018/2019

If we do have a look at the season so far, the model based on the last 3 season isn't actually done so bad! The loss it has at the moment is still manageable and if we would exclude the correct score prediction market, it would have made a profit!
Still it has to break the bad streak. It did record it's fifth losing week in a row!

The models based on the current season results is turning into a nightmare. The loss is again more than 100 units, a negative ROI of 13,38%. To bad that it couldn't hit back to back winning weeks!

The pace in the Jupiler Pro League will increase a little bit. This midweek there are some cup games and then 2 more round will be played before new year! The last game will be played on the 27the of December and then the winter break will start and the competition will resume at the 18th of January!

Cheers,
Peter