Grêmio has won the first leg by 1x0 in Buenos Aires and now the team qualified to the finals will be defined tomorrow in Porto Alegre 21:45 local time. The first leg was marked by a very defensive Grêmio that could hold the hosts very well and eventually scored in an efficient corner kick with a header of Michel DM. The second game however suggests much more attacking action, as Gremio rarely defends too much when at a home and the visitors are down the score.
This scenario described above IMO tends to benefit Grêmio, In the first leg I have seen a very poor performance of River Plate's midfield, the core of their defensive midfield sector was very vulnerable and now they are set to suffer many more counter-attacks than at home. Gremio will count on their key attacker Éverton, I even wrote an entire post about the rising of this guy, which you can check here. River will be forced to attack and Grêmio will have more space to work.
The chances of River Plate lie on the problems of Grêmio's defensive system. Kanneman CB is suspended and the subs aren't as good as him. Bressan CB has been especially problematic the last time he was fielded, so the expected line-up counts on Paulo Miranda CB alongside with the international CB Geromel (who isn't at his prime after the World Cup). Leonardo Gomes RB was the worst player of Grêmio in Buenos Aires and the tendency at home is to use Léo Moura, who just turned 40 last week, and is more of a RWB than RB, which could be good for a counter-attack based game. In sum, Gremio's worst mistake would be focusing too much on defending way too early in the match, the point is if the defensive system isn't fielded at it's best so for them it's better to hold the ball in the attacking field and try to decide the game by attacking.
I think the match tends to develop in a positive way for Grêmio, they do not normally close themselves at their defensive field when playing at home with a stadium full of supporters in a key fixture. I expect River opening spaces and Grêmio able to have chances to score from the very begin.
River Plate's possible success would be by attacking in a much more dangerous way than at their home match, a complete change of focus level and even a bit more of motivation would be needed to qualify to the finals.
Considering Asian Handicap I expect Grêmio -0.5 @ 2.2 to be about correct especially if Éverton plays from the begin.
I would say the match looks more overish than under as we have an uneven score from the begin, so Over 2.75 @1.90 is about correct
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