For as long as I can remember I've spent time each year trying to predict what the Premier League table will look like at the end of the season. Sure, it's very difficult to predict, but one of my favourite things to do for fun is to compare the previous season's results with the current season's results to see what points differences there are along the way.

This model assumes that each team will get the same wins, draws, and losses against opponents as the previous season and then adjusts the predicted final point totals as results come in from those corresponding fixtures. This is not the most accurate way to predict things but it does provide an insight into how each team is doing in comparison to the corresponding fixtures from last year.

The main issue with this model is that there are three relegated and promoted teams to account for. For ease, I place the relegated teams in order of highest to lowest points and then match them up against the promoted teams, also in order of highest to lowest points. Here's how that looks this season:

Relegated/Promoted

  • Swansea/Wolves
  • Stoke/Cardiff
  • West Brom/Fulham

For example, when a team is playing Cardiff away this season, I will compare the result to that of Stoke away last season. If a team is playing at home against Wolves, I will compare that result to their game at home against Swansea last season.

Source

The Teams

The thing I'm most interested in trying to predict along the way is the final standings for the top 4 places of the Premier League. The teams I will be including in this comparison are Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester United.

I will create update posts for this predictive points model as more games are played throughout the season. Here are the results following the first 10 Premier League games.

Manchester City - 2017/18 vs 2018/19

  • Arsenal (a) - win/win: 0
  • Huddersfield (h) - draw/win: +2
  • Wolverhampton [Swansea] (a) - win/draw: -2
  • Newcastle (h) - win/win: 0
  • Fulham [West Brom] (h) - win/win: 0
  • Cardiff [Stoke] (a) - win/win: 0
  • Brighton (h) - win/win: 0
  • Liverpool (a) - loss/draw: +1
  • Burnley (h) - win/win: 0
  • Tottenham (a) - win/win: 0

Points Difference: +1

Expected Points: 101

Liverpool - 2017/18 vs 2018/19

  • West Ham (h) - win/win: 0
  • Crystal Palace (a) - win/win: 0
  • Brighton (h) - win/win: 0
  • Leicester (a) - win/win: 0
  • Tottenham (a) - loss/win: +3
  • Southampton (h) - win/win: 0
  • Chelsea (a) - loss/draw: +1
  • Manchester City (h) - win/draw: -2
  • Huddersfield (a) - win/win: 0
  • Cardiff [Stoke] (h): draw/win: +2 

Points Difference: +4

Expected Points: 79

Chelsea - 2017/18 vs 2018/19

  • Huddersfield (a) - win/win: 0
  • Arsenal (h) - draw/win: +2
  • Newcastle (a) - win/win: 0
  • Bournemouth (h) - loss/win: +3
  • Cardiff [Stoke] (h) - win/win: 0
  • West Ham (a) - loss/draw: +1
  • Liverpool (h) - win/draw: -2
  • Southampton (a) - win/win: 0
  • Manchester United (h) - win/draw: -2
  • Burnley (a) - win/win: 0

Points Difference: +2

Expected Points: 72

Arsenal - 2017/18 vs 2018/19

  • Manchester City (h) - loss/loss: 0
  • Chelsea (a) - draw/loss: -1
  • West Ham (h) - win/win: 0
  • Cardiff [Stoke] (a) - loss/win: +3
  • Newcastle (a) - loss/win: +3
  • Everton (h) - win/win: 0
  • Watford (h) - win/win: 0
  • Fulham [West Brom] (a) - draw/win +2
  • Leicester (h) - win/win: 0
  • Crystal Palace (a) - win/draw: -2

Points Difference: +5

Expected Points: 68

Tottenham - 2017/18 vs 2018/19

  • Newcastle (a) - win/win: 0
  • Fulham [West Brom] (h) - draw/win: +2
  • Manchester United (a) - loss/win: +3
  • Watford (a) - draw/loss: -1
  • Liverpool (h) - win/loss: -3
  • Brighton (a) - draw/win: +2
  • Huddersfield (a) - win/win: 0
  • Cardiff [Stoke] (a) - win/win: 0
  • West Ham (a) - win/win: 0
  • Manchester City (h) - loss/loss: 0

Points Difference: +3

Expected Points: 80

Manchester United - 2017/18 vs 2018/19

  • Leicester (h) - win/win: 0
  • Brighton (a) - loss/loss: 0
  • Tottenham (h) - win/loss: -3
  • Burnley (a) - win/win: 0
  • Watford (a) - win/win: 0
  • Wolves [Swansea] (h) - win/draw: -2
  • West Ham (a) - draw/loss: -2
  • Newcastle (h) - win/win: 0
  • Chelsea (a) - loss/draw: +1
  • Everton (h) - win/win: 0

Points Difference: -6

Expected Points: 75

Current Predicted Top 4

  1. Manchester City: 101
  2. Tottenham: 80
  3. Liverpool: 79
  4. Manchester United: 75

Interestingly, all of the teams except Manchester United have collected more points this season from the correspnding fixtures last season. As it's still early days, the current top 4 is somewhat questionable as Manchester City would have to go on an unbelievable run to finish on a higher number of points than last season and Manchester United would really have to step things up to overtake Chelse and Arsenal.

How do you think each team is getting on so far?