Projecting the NCAA Tournament with @sportsguychris - 2nd Edition
Welcome back to another edition of projecting the NCAA tournament field with @sportsguychris. We are edging ever closer to "march madness" and soon the first of the 68 bids will be awarded, but first, we still have a solid couple weeks of action that will go a long way in sorting out the final field.
There weren't too many changes at the top as the best in the country kept on winning. One notable result from the weekend was Kentucky demolishing Tennessee in a huge SEC showdown. The loss wasn't enough to knock the Vols from the 1-line, but it opened the door for Kentucky to possibly move up to the top line. Duke remains the top overall seed, and Virginia and Gonzaga remain the other two 1-seeds.
Kentucky is the top 2-seed, and are followed by Michigan, North Carolina, and Houston. The Cougars are now 25-1 as they continue to breeze through AAC competition. Meanwhile, Kansas State and Wisconsin were the only two to slide out of the top 16. LSU and Iowa State both jumped up a seed to the 4-line. The Badgers and Wildcats settle in as 5-seeds.
There wasn't too much change in the middle of the field, with both Iowa and St. John's moving up to the 6-line. St. John's got a huge victory @ Villanova over the weekend, and the Hawkeyes are now 20-5 on the season.
Central Florida and Temple kept on winning in the AAC, and both took advantage of lackluster results in the "power" conferences, to both solidify themselves into the current field. Each moved up a line this week to a 9-seed and 10-seed, respectively.
The backend of the bracket once again provided several challenges as perspective "bubble" teams didn't do much to help themselves this past week. If anything, the lackluster play of those hoping to sneak-in only further muddled the bracket picture.
Ultimately, only Arkansas slid out of the projected field from the first edition. A pair of losses this past week dropped the Razorbacks to just 5-7 in SEC play and 14-11 overall. A win at LSU looks good, but Arkansas certainly needs more, especially after a week to forget. N.C. State joined the field, and even though the Wolfpack are 18-8 and 6-7 in a very difficult ACC, they don't have much for quality wins.
As it sits now, Alabama, N.C. State, Ohio State, and Clemson are the last four teams in the field. The Tigers are hanging on by a thread after a tough week, but ultimately get the nod thanks to a difficult strength of schedule. The first four teams out are: Furman (22-5), Liberty (23-5), Oregon State (16-8), and Arkansas (14-11). San Francisco (20-6) continues to linger as well, but will have to make noise in the WCC tournament to get-in. The conference really doesn't offer much in terms of quality wins.
One interesting takeaway from the current projected field is the overall quality of the 13-line. Vermont, Hofstra, Yale, and Lipscomb all have just 5 losses or less, and all are talented enough to make a run come tournament time. The "bubble" doesn't seem quite as strong as recent years, but still has plenty of potential for drama moving forward. Without further ado here is this week's NCAA tournament projections:
1 - seeds: *Duke (23-2), *Tennessee (23-2), *Gonzaga (25-2), Virginia (22-2)
2 - seeds: Kentucky (21-4), *Michigan (23-3), North Carolina (20-5), *Houston (25-1)
3 - seeds: *Nevada (24-1), Michigan State (21-5), Marquette (21-4), Kansas (20-6)
4 - seeds: LSU (21-4), Purdue (18-7), *Villanova (20-6), Iowa State (19-6)
5 - seeds: Florida State (20-5), Wisconsin (17-8), Texas Tech (21-5), *Kansas State (19-6)
6 - seeds: Iowa (20-5), St. John's (19-7), Cincinnati (21-4), Virginia Tech (20-5)
7 - seeds: Louisville (18-8), *Washington (20-5), Maryland (19-7), Buffalo (22-3)
8 - seeds: Mississippi State (18-7), Ole Miss (18-7), Syracuse (17-8), Minnesota (17-9)
9 - seeds: Auburn (17-8), Arizona State (17-8), UCF (19-5), Seton Hall (16-9)
10 - seeds: Temple (19-7), VCU (19-6), *Wofford (23-4), TCU (17-8)
11 - seeds: Texas (15-11), Baylor (16-9), Belmont (21-4)
Alabama (15-10) / N.C. State (18-8) [play-in game; last four in]
12 - seeds: *Davidson (19-6), *New Mexico State (22-4), *Murray State (21-4)
Ohio State (16-9) / Clemson (15-10) [play-in game; last four in]
13 - seeds: *Hofstra (22-5), *Vermont (21-5), *Yale (17-4), *Lipscomb (21-5)
14 - seeds: *UC-Irvine (22-5), *Old Dominion (21-6), *Texas State (21-5), *South Dakota State (21-7)
15 - seeds: *Montana (19-6), *North Kentucky (20-7), *UL-Chicago (16-11), *Bucknell (17-9)
16 - seeds: *Radford (18-8), *Quinnipiac (14-11)
*Sam Houston State (17-9) / *Norfolk State (15-11) [play-in game, lowest seed automatic bids]
*St. Francis (PA) (14-11) / *Prarie View (12-12)
[play-in game, lowest seed automatic bids]
*denotes current conference leader (and the automatic bid associated with that
conference)
As always, I would love to hear your thoughts below in the comments section - who's over-seeded? Who's under-seeded? And who do you like to make some noise come tournament time? Enjoy all of action ahead of us this week!
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