NCAA / projections

sportsguychris
PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - 2nd Edition
Welcome back all! It was an eventful week to say the least in the world of college hoops. We had one of the top 2 teams in the land suffer their first loss of the season, a new #1 seed, several changes amongst the "bubble" teams, and then a little chaos of course as well! We start at the top, where top overall seed, Gonzaga, continues to cruise along. The Zags have completed an unbeaten regular season, and now just have to manuever through the WCC tournament to head into the Big Dance with a perfect record. They will be an easy favorite to do just that after taking down San Diego, Santa Clara, and LMU by 37, 14, and 17, respectively, to wrap up the regular season. Behind them, however, Baylor was unable to shake off the residual rust from a long-layoff and suffered their first loss of the season at red-hot Kansas. The Bears are still a 1-seed, but drop behind Michigan, as the Wolverines continue to tear through their schedule. The victory sends Kansas up to a 4-seed for now, as the Jayhawks are quickly closing in on the 3-line. Speaking of the Wolverines, they crushed #5 Iowa by 22, and then dispatched Indiana by 16 in Bloomington - no easy task in either case by any means. The Wolverines finish the regular season with #4 Illinois, and a pair of games against in-state rival Michigan State. Not the easiest of closing stretches to say the least. Of course, no team may have done themselves a bigger favor this past week, then Michigan State. All the Spartans did was beat Indiana on the road, and then take-down #4 Illinois and #5 Ohio State in back-to-back games to go from not even on the "bubble" radar, to into the projected field. The momentum hit a wall on Sunday, however, as they fell by 18 at Maryland. That setback slid the Spartans back slightly, and now they are the last team in the projected field. Tonight's showdown with Indiana is a massive one for both teams' at-large chances. In addition to the Spartans, Oklahoma State was the other team that did the most to bolster their resume & projected seed. The Cowboys defeated highly-regarded Texas Tech, and then cooled off in-state rival Oklahoma by sweeping the Sooners in back-to-back games. The barrage of Quad 1 wins moved the Cowboys up 2 spots this week, to the top of the 6-line. Before we dive too far into the field, however, there was a big change at the top. Illinois is now the final projected #1 seed thanks to Ohio State losing at Michigan State and then suffering a 16-point setback at home to Iowa. The pair of losses drops the Buckeyes down to a 2-seed for now, but they will have an opportunity to play themselves right back onto the 1-line when they host - you guessed it - Illinois, on Saturday. Moving along, Houston moved up from a 4 to a 2-seed. The Cougars are now 20-3 and own a sparkling NET rating of 4. Joining the Cougars on the 2-line are the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama lost a tough one to Arkansas, but still sit atop the SEC and own a very solid NET ranking of 9, and having 7 Quad 1 wins. Florida State slid down a spot and are the only new-comers to the 3-line this week. The Seminoles managed to take care of business against Pitt & Miami on the road, but fell at UNC over the weekend. That W helped to keep North Carolina in the back-end of the projected field. Rounding out the top 16 are the previously touched upon red-hot Kansas Jayhawks, along with Arkansas, up a spot from a 5 to a 4 after their big victory over Alabama, and then Texas Tech & Tennessee. Colorado scored a big victory USC, and combined with an impressive NET ranking of 13, has the Buffaloes up a seed-line to a #5. Creighton and USC both slid down a spot and join Texas as the group of 5-seeds. Other noteworthy movement in this week's projections has Maryland up a pair of spots to the 8-line. The Terrapins' resume was bolstered by victories over Rutgers & Michigan State. Along with a NET of 29 and 5 - Quad 1 victories, they should be safely in. UCLA is now on top of the Pac-12, and moved up a seed-line in the process, from a 10 to a 9. Colorado State is also inching closer to more comfortable territory, as they were able to move up from an 11 to a 10. The Rams are now 16-4 in a surprisingly competitive Mountain West Conference. That leads us to the "bubble" portion of the projected field, where we had four teams from last week's projections fall out, and four new teams jump in. As already noted, Michigan State is one of those newcomers, and round-out the field as the final team in at the moment. Louisville was the biggest beneficiary, as the Cardinals not only moved into the projected bracket, but are currently sitting as a 10-seed. St. Bonaventure took over the top spot in the A-10, and coupled with VCU's regular-season ending loss to Davidson, has sent the Rams back to "Last 4 In" territory next to the Spartans. Minnesota went from being a shoe-in to a complete mess. The Gophers are truly enigma. Back on January 16th they took down Michigan by 17, and to date, are the lone team to defeat the Wolverines this season. At that point, they also owned victories over Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Saint Louis. Since then? They are just 2-8, with the last two games being a 12-point home loss to 7-14 Northwestern, and a loss to last-place, 7-17 Nebraska. Ouch. The Gophers are fading fast, and went tumbling out of the field as a result. Georgia Tech & UConn were the two teams that took advantage, and moved into the field. Once upon a time the Yellow Jackets started the season with a 123-120 4OT loss to Georgia State & then were upset by Mercer. Victories over UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and then at Virginia Tech & Syracuse in their last 2, have them into the field. They are holding off Duke for now, and of course host the Blue Devils in a huge "bubble" showdown in the ACC tonight. Rounding out the "bubble", Western Kentucky finds themselves in "First 4 Out" territory, thanks largely to an impressive non-conference win at Alabama. The Hilltoppers are behind Louisiana Tech for the top spot in Conference USA. Duke, Saint Louis, and Indiana wrap up the "First 4 Out" category. Utah State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, and Richmond round out the group of "Next 4 Out" teams. As always, there was plenty to cover, but we made it through, and without further ado, here is the @sportsguychris Projecting the 2021 NCAA tournament - 2nd Edition!: 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS (#-denotes current conference leader and that conference's automatic bid; record in ( ) followed by NET ranking, and record [W-L] in Quad 1 games this season) (^1)(-1) = indicates movement/changes from last edition 1 GONZAGA (24-0) # 1, 7-0 1 MICHIGAN (18-1) # 2, 7-1 1 BAYLOR (18-1) # 3, 6-1 1 ILLINOIS (18-6) 6, 8-5 (^1) - 2 IOWA (18-7) 5, 5-6 2 OHIO STATE (18-7) 8, 7-5 (-1) 2 HOUSTON (20-3) 4, 2-1 (^2) 2 ALABAMA (19-6) # 9, 7-4 - 3 WEST VIRGINIA (17-6) 12, 6-6 3 VILLANOVA (15-4) # 11, 2-3 3 FLORIDA STATE (14-4) # 15, 3-3 (-1) 3 VIRGINIA (16-6) 17, 2-4 - 4 KANSAS (18-8) 10, 6-8 (^1) 4 ARKANSAS (19-5) 19, 6-4 (^1) 4 TEXAS TECH (15-8) 14, 5-7 4 TENNESSEE (16-7) 22, 5-5 - 5 COLORADO (19-7) 13, 3-4 (^1) 5 CREIGHTON (17-6) 23, 4-2 (-1) 5 USC (19-6) 25, 3-3 (-1) 5 TEXAS (14-7) 27, 4-7 - 6 OKLAHOMA STATE (17-6) 33, 7-4 (^2) 6 WISCONSIN (16-9) 24, 4-7 6 OKLAHOMA (14-8) 30, 5-5 (-3) 6 PURDUE (16-8) 21, 5-7 ^1 - 7 LOYOLA CHI (21-4) # 16, 1-2 (-1) 7 BYU (19-5) 20, 3-3 7 FLORIDA (13-6) 26, 5-3 7 SAN DIEGO STATE (19-4) # 18, 4-4 (^1) - 8 MARYLAND (15-10) 29, 5-9 (^2) 8 CLEMSON (15-5) 34, 3-5 8 VIRGINIA TECH (15-5) 45, 2-2 (-2) 8 MISSOURI (14-7) 47, 6-4 (-1) - 9 UCLA (17-6) # 38, 2-4 (^1) 9 BOISE STATE (18-6) 35, 2-4 (-1) 9 OREGON (17-5) 44, 3-3 9 RUTGERS (13-10) 32, 4-8 - 10 ST. BONAVENTURE (13-4) # 28, 2-2 10 LSU (14-8) 31, 3-7 (-1) 10 *LOUISVILLE (13-5) 45, 1-4 10 COLORADO STATE (16-4) 43, 2-3 (^1) - 11 NORTH CAROLINA (15-9) 41, 2-6 11 XAVIER (13-5) 48, 2-2 (-1) 11 DRAKE (24-3) 42, 1-1 -2 11 *GEORGIA TECH (13-8) 40, 2-6 @ 11 *UCONN (12-6) 36, 2-3 @ - 12 WICHITA STATE (13-4) # 66, 2-2 12 WINTHROP (21-1) # 68 12 WRIGHT STATE (18-5) # 63 (^2) 12 VCU (17-6) 37, 2-4 (-3) @ 12 *MICHIGAN STATE (13-10) 77, 4-8 @ - 13 BELMONT (24-3) # 81 (-1) 13 UCSB (17-4) # 51 13 LIBERTY (20-5) # 82 13 *LA TECH (19-6) # 72 - 14 TOLEDO (20-6) #58 14 ABILENE CHRI (19-3) # 86 14 *NAVY (15-2) # 84 14 UMBC (14-5) # - 15 UNCG (18-8) # 91 15 EASTERN WA (12-6) # 15 GRAND CANYON (14-5) # 15 JAMES MADISON (13-6) # - 16 SIENA (11-3) # 16 S DAKOTA ST (15-6) # 16 PRARIE VIEW (11-4) # 16 TEXAS STATE (18-6) # 16 NC A&T (11-10) # 16 *BRYANT (14-5) # ---- LAST 4 BYES --------------------- COLORADO STATE (15-4) 43, 2-3 NORTH CAROLINA (15-8) 41, 2-6 XAVIER (13-5) 48, 2-2 -1 DRAKE (24-3) 42, 1-1 - LAST 4 IN (PLAY-IN GAMES) ---------------- GEORGIA TECH (13-8) 40, 2-6 UCONN (12-6) 36, 2-3 VCU (17-6) 37, 2-4 MICHIGAN STATE (13-10) 77, 4-8 - FIRST 4 OUT -------------------- WKU (17-5) 74, 1-3 DUKE (11-9) 59, 1-3 SAINT LOUIS (14-5) 50, 2-2 ^ INDIANA (12-12) 57, 2-9 -- - NEXT 4 OUT ------------------- UTAH STATE (16-7) 49, 2-4 MINNESOTA (13-12) 69, 4-9 -- SETON HALL (13-10) 53, 3-6 -- RICHMOND (13-7) 54, 3-4 - - STILL ALIVE -------------------- STANFORD (14-11) 64, 4-5 -- SMU (11-4) 55, 0-3 MEMPHIS (14-6) 60, 0-2 OLE MISS (13-10) 61, 3-4 - COLGATE 11-1, 11, 0-0 * - New to the field this week -- = Dropped out of the field @ = Denotes Final Four In; Play-In Games Participants ---- Chris Elgersma Thank you for the support as always. You can find me on IG & YouTube at @sportsguychris and be sure to check out my podcast with my good buddy Mikee: "The Balls and Beards Podcast" available on Spotify, Apple Pocketcasts, Google Podcasts, Anchor, and Breaker! We keep you up to date on everything in the world of the NFL & NBA!
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sportsguychris
PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - 2nd Edition
Welcome back all! It was an eventful week to say the least in the world of college hoops. We had one of the top 2 teams in the land suffer their first loss of the season, a new #1 seed, several changes amongst the "bubble" teams, and then a little chaos of course as well! We start at the top, where top overall seed, Gonzaga, continues to cruise along. The Zags have completed an unbeaten regular season, and now just have to manuever through the WCC tournament to head into the Big Dance with a perfect record. They will be an easy favorite to do just that after taking down San Diego, Santa Clara, and LMU by 37, 14, and 17, respectively, to wrap up the regular season. Behind them, however, Baylor was unable to shake off the residual rust from a long-layoff and suffered their first loss of the season at red-hot Kansas. The Bears are still a 1-seed, but drop behind Michigan, as the Wolverines continue to tear through their schedule. The victory sends Kansas up to a 4-seed for now, as the Jayhawks are quickly closing in on the 3-line. Speaking of the Wolverines, they crushed #5 Iowa by 22, and then dispatched Indiana by 16 in Bloomington - no easy task in either case by any means. The Wolverines finish the regular season with #4 Illinois, and a pair of games against in-state rival Michigan State. Not the easiest of closing stretches to say the least. Of course, no team may have done themselves a bigger favor this past week, then Michigan State. All the Spartans did was beat Indiana on the road, and then take-down #4 Illinois and #5 Ohio State in back-to-back games to go from not even on the "bubble" radar, to into the projected field. The momentum hit a wall on Sunday, however, as they fell by 18 at Maryland. That setback slid the Spartans back slightly, and now they are the last team in the projected field. Tonight's showdown with Indiana is a massive one for both teams' at-large chances. In addition to the Spartans, Oklahoma State was the other team that did the most to bolster their resume & projected seed. The Cowboys defeated highly-regarded Texas Tech, and then cooled off in-state rival Oklahoma by sweeping the Sooners in back-to-back games. The barrage of Quad 1 wins moved the Cowboys up 2 spots this week, to the top of the 6-line. Before we dive too far into the field, however, there was a big change at the top. Illinois is now the final projected #1 seed thanks to Ohio State losing at Michigan State and then suffering a 16-point setback at home to Iowa. The pair of losses drops the Buckeyes down to a 2-seed for now, but they will have an opportunity to play themselves right back onto the 1-line when they host - you guessed it - Illinois, on Saturday. Moving along, Houston moved up from a 4 to a 2-seed. The Cougars are now 20-3 and own a sparkling NET rating of 4. Joining the Cougars on the 2-line are the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama lost a tough one to Arkansas, but still sit atop the SEC and own a very solid NET ranking of 9, and having 7 Quad 1 wins. Florida State slid down a spot and are the only new-comers to the 3-line this week. The Seminoles managed to take care of business against Pitt & Miami on the road, but fell at UNC over the weekend. That W helped to keep North Carolina in the back-end of the projected field. Rounding out the top 16 are the previously touched upon red-hot Kansas Jayhawks, along with Arkansas, up a spot from a 5 to a 4 after their big victory over Alabama, and then Texas Tech & Tennessee. Colorado scored a big victory USC, and combined with an impressive NET ranking of 13, has the Buffaloes up a seed-line to a #5. Creighton and USC both slid down a spot and join Texas as the group of 5-seeds. Other noteworthy movement in this week's projections has Maryland up a pair of spots to the 8-line. The Terrapins' resume was bolstered by victories over Rutgers & Michigan State. Along with a NET of 29 and 5 - Quad 1 victories, they should be safely in. UCLA is now on top of the Pac-12, and moved up a seed-line in the process, from a 10 to a 9. Colorado State is also inching closer to more comfortable territory, as they were able to move up from an 11 to a 10. The Rams are now 16-4 in a surprisingly competitive Mountain West Conference. That leads us to the "bubble" portion of the projected field, where we had four teams from last week's projections fall out, and four new teams jump in. As already noted, Michigan State is one of those newcomers, and round-out the field as the final team in at the moment. Louisville was the biggest beneficiary, as the Cardinals not only moved into the projected bracket, but are currently sitting as a 10-seed. St. Bonaventure took over the top spot in the A-10, and coupled with VCU's regular-season ending loss to Davidson, has sent the Rams back to "Last 4 In" territory next to the Spartans. Minnesota went from being a shoe-in to a complete mess. The Gophers are truly enigma. Back on January 16th they took down Michigan by 17, and to date, are the lone team to defeat the Wolverines this season. At that point, they also owned victories over Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Saint Louis. Since then? They are just 2-8, with the last two games being a 12-point home loss to 7-14 Northwestern, and a loss to last-place, 7-17 Nebraska. Ouch. The Gophers are fading fast, and went tumbling out of the field as a result. Georgia Tech & UConn were the two teams that took advantage, and moved into the field. Once upon a time the Yellow Jackets started the season with a 123-120 4OT loss to Georgia State & then were upset by Mercer. Victories over UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and then at Virginia Tech & Syracuse in their last 2, have them into the field. They are holding off Duke for now, and of course host the Blue Devils in a huge "bubble" showdown in the ACC tonight. Rounding out the "bubble", Western Kentucky finds themselves in "First 4 Out" territory, thanks largely to an impressive non-conference win at Alabama. The Hilltoppers are behind Louisiana Tech for the top spot in Conference USA. Duke, Saint Louis, and Indiana wrap up the "First 4 Out" category. Utah State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, and Richmond round out the group of "Next 4 Out" teams. As always, there was plenty to cover, but we made it through, and without further ado, here is the @sportsguychris Projecting the 2021 NCAA tournament - 2nd Edition!: 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS (#-denotes current conference leader and that conference's automatic bid; record in ( ) followed by NET ranking, and record [W-L] in Quad 1 games this season) (^1)(-1) = indicates movement/changes from last edition 1 GONZAGA (24-0) # 1, 7-0 1 MICHIGAN (18-1) # 2, 7-1 1 BAYLOR (18-1) # 3, 6-1 1 ILLINOIS (18-6) 6, 8-5 (^1) - 2 IOWA (18-7) 5, 5-6 2 OHIO STATE (18-7) 8, 7-5 (-1) 2 HOUSTON (20-3) 4, 2-1 (^2) 2 ALABAMA (19-6) # 9, 7-4 - 3 WEST VIRGINIA (17-6) 12, 6-6 3 VILLANOVA (15-4) # 11, 2-3 3 FLORIDA STATE (14-4) # 15, 3-3 (-1) 3 VIRGINIA (16-6) 17, 2-4 - 4 KANSAS (18-8) 10, 6-8 (^1) 4 ARKANSAS (19-5) 19, 6-4 (^1) 4 TEXAS TECH (15-8) 14, 5-7 4 TENNESSEE (16-7) 22, 5-5 - 5 COLORADO (19-7) 13, 3-4 (^1) 5 CREIGHTON (17-6) 23, 4-2 (-1) 5 USC (19-6) 25, 3-3 (-1) 5 TEXAS (14-7) 27, 4-7 - 6 OKLAHOMA STATE (17-6) 33, 7-4 (^2) 6 WISCONSIN (16-9) 24, 4-7 6 OKLAHOMA (14-8) 30, 5-5 (-3) 6 PURDUE (16-8) 21, 5-7 ^1 - 7 LOYOLA CHI (21-4) # 16, 1-2 (-1) 7 BYU (19-5) 20, 3-3 7 FLORIDA (13-6) 26, 5-3 7 SAN DIEGO STATE (19-4) # 18, 4-4 (^1) - 8 MARYLAND (15-10) 29, 5-9 (^2) 8 CLEMSON (15-5) 34, 3-5 8 VIRGINIA TECH (15-5) 45, 2-2 (-2) 8 MISSOURI (14-7) 47, 6-4 (-1) - 9 UCLA (17-6) # 38, 2-4 (^1) 9 BOISE STATE (18-6) 35, 2-4 (-1) 9 OREGON (17-5) 44, 3-3 9 RUTGERS (13-10) 32, 4-8 - 10 ST. BONAVENTURE (13-4) # 28, 2-2 10 LSU (14-8) 31, 3-7 (-1) 10 *LOUISVILLE (13-5) 45, 1-4 10 COLORADO STATE (16-4) 43, 2-3 (^1) - 11 NORTH CAROLINA (15-9) 41, 2-6 11 XAVIER (13-5) 48, 2-2 (-1) 11 DRAKE (24-3) 42, 1-1 -2 11 *GEORGIA TECH (13-8) 40, 2-6 @ 11 *UCONN (12-6) 36, 2-3 @ - 12 WICHITA STATE (13-4) # 66, 2-2 12 WINTHROP (21-1) # 68 12 WRIGHT STATE (18-5) # 63 (^2) 12 VCU (17-6) 37, 2-4 (-3) @ 12 *MICHIGAN STATE (13-10) 77, 4-8 @ - 13 BELMONT (24-3) # 81 (-1) 13 UCSB (17-4) # 51 13 LIBERTY (20-5) # 82 13 *LA TECH (19-6) # 72 - 14 TOLEDO (20-6) #58 14 ABILENE CHRI (19-3) # 86 14 *NAVY (15-2) # 84 14 UMBC (14-5) # - 15 UNCG (18-8) # 91 15 EASTERN WA (12-6) # 15 GRAND CANYON (14-5) # 15 JAMES MADISON (13-6) # - 16 SIENA (11-3) # 16 S DAKOTA ST (15-6) # 16 PRARIE VIEW (11-4) # 16 TEXAS STATE (18-6) # 16 NC A&T (11-10) # 16 *BRYANT (14-5) # ---- LAST 4 BYES --------------------- COLORADO STATE (15-4) 43, 2-3 NORTH CAROLINA (15-8) 41, 2-6 XAVIER (13-5) 48, 2-2 -1 DRAKE (24-3) 42, 1-1 - LAST 4 IN (PLAY-IN GAMES) ---------------- GEORGIA TECH (13-8) 40, 2-6 UCONN (12-6) 36, 2-3 VCU (17-6) 37, 2-4 MICHIGAN STATE (13-10) 77, 4-8 - FIRST 4 OUT -------------------- WKU (17-5) 74, 1-3 DUKE (11-9) 59, 1-3 SAINT LOUIS (14-5) 50, 2-2 ^ INDIANA (12-12) 57, 2-9 -- - NEXT 4 OUT ------------------- UTAH STATE (16-7) 49, 2-4 MINNESOTA (13-12) 69, 4-9 -- SETON HALL (13-10) 53, 3-6 -- RICHMOND (13-7) 54, 3-4 - - STILL ALIVE -------------------- STANFORD (14-11) 64, 4-5 -- SMU (11-4) 55, 0-3 MEMPHIS (14-6) 60, 0-2 OLE MISS (13-10) 61, 3-4 - COLGATE 11-1, 11, 0-0 * - New to the field this week -- = Dropped out of the field @ = Denotes Final Four In; Play-In Games Participants ---- Chris Elgersma Thank you for the support as always. You can find me on IG & YouTube at @sportsguychris and be sure to check out my podcast with my good buddy Mikee: "The Balls and Beards Podcast" available on Spotify, Apple Pocketcasts, Google Podcasts, Anchor, and Breaker! We keep you up to date on everything in the world of the NFL & NBA!
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sportsguychris
PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - 2nd Edition
Welcome back all! It was an eventful week to say the least in the world of college hoops. We had one of the top 2 teams in the land suffer their first loss of the season, a new #1 seed, several changes amongst the "bubble" teams, and then a little chaos of course as well! We start at the top, where top overall seed, Gonzaga, continues to cruise along. The Zags have completed an unbeaten regular season, and now just have to manuever through the WCC tournament to head into the Big Dance with a perfect record. They will be an easy favorite to do just that after taking down San Diego, Santa Clara, and LMU by 37, 14, and 17, respectively, to wrap up the regular season. Behind them, however, Baylor was unable to shake off the residual rust from a long-layoff and suffered their first loss of the season at red-hot Kansas. The Bears are still a 1-seed, but drop behind Michigan, as the Wolverines continue to tear through their schedule. The victory sends Kansas up to a 4-seed for now, as the Jayhawks are quickly closing in on the 3-line. Speaking of the Wolverines, they crushed #5 Iowa by 22, and then dispatched Indiana by 16 in Bloomington - no easy task in either case by any means. The Wolverines finish the regular season with #4 Illinois, and a pair of games against in-state rival Michigan State. Not the easiest of closing stretches to say the least. Of course, no team may have done themselves a bigger favor this past week, then Michigan State. All the Spartans did was beat Indiana on the road, and then take-down #4 Illinois and #5 Ohio State in back-to-back games to go from not even on the "bubble" radar, to into the projected field. The momentum hit a wall on Sunday, however, as they fell by 18 at Maryland. That setback slid the Spartans back slightly, and now they are the last team in the projected field. Tonight's showdown with Indiana is a massive one for both teams' at-large chances. In addition to the Spartans, Oklahoma State was the other team that did the most to bolster their resume & projected seed. The Cowboys defeated highly-regarded Texas Tech, and then cooled off in-state rival Oklahoma by sweeping the Sooners in back-to-back games. The barrage of Quad 1 wins moved the Cowboys up 2 spots this week, to the top of the 6-line. Before we dive too far into the field, however, there was a big change at the top. Illinois is now the final projected #1 seed thanks to Ohio State losing at Michigan State and then suffering a 16-point setback at home to Iowa. The pair of losses drops the Buckeyes down to a 2-seed for now, but they will have an opportunity to play themselves right back onto the 1-line when they host - you guessed it - Illinois, on Saturday. Moving along, Houston moved up from a 4 to a 2-seed. The Cougars are now 20-3 and own a sparkling NET rating of 4. Joining the Cougars on the 2-line are the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama lost a tough one to Arkansas, but still sit atop the SEC and own a very solid NET ranking of 9, and having 7 Quad 1 wins. Florida State slid down a spot and are the only new-comers to the 3-line this week. The Seminoles managed to take care of business against Pitt & Miami on the road, but fell at UNC over the weekend. That W helped to keep North Carolina in the back-end of the projected field. Rounding out the top 16 are the previously touched upon red-hot Kansas Jayhawks, along with Arkansas, up a spot from a 5 to a 4 after their big victory over Alabama, and then Texas Tech & Tennessee. Colorado scored a big victory USC, and combined with an impressive NET ranking of 13, has the Buffaloes up a seed-line to a #5. Creighton and USC both slid down a spot and join Texas as the group of 5-seeds. Other noteworthy movement in this week's projections has Maryland up a pair of spots to the 8-line. The Terrapins' resume was bolstered by victories over Rutgers & Michigan State. Along with a NET of 29 and 5 - Quad 1 victories, they should be safely in. UCLA is now on top of the Pac-12, and moved up a seed-line in the process, from a 10 to a 9. Colorado State is also inching closer to more comfortable territory, as they were able to move up from an 11 to a 10. The Rams are now 16-4 in a surprisingly competitive Mountain West Conference. That leads us to the "bubble" portion of the projected field, where we had four teams from last week's projections fall out, and four new teams jump in. As already noted, Michigan State is one of those newcomers, and round-out the field as the final team in at the moment. Louisville was the biggest beneficiary, as the Cardinals not only moved into the projected bracket, but are currently sitting as a 10-seed. St. Bonaventure took over the top spot in the A-10, and coupled with VCU's regular-season ending loss to Davidson, has sent the Rams back to "Last 4 In" territory next to the Spartans. Minnesota went from being a shoe-in to a complete mess. The Gophers are truly enigma. Back on January 16th they took down Michigan by 17, and to date, are the lone team to defeat the Wolverines this season. At that point, they also owned victories over Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, and Saint Louis. Since then? They are just 2-8, with the last two games being a 12-point home loss to 7-14 Northwestern, and a loss to last-place, 7-17 Nebraska. Ouch. The Gophers are fading fast, and went tumbling out of the field as a result. Georgia Tech & UConn were the two teams that took advantage, and moved into the field. Once upon a time the Yellow Jackets started the season with a 123-120 4OT loss to Georgia State & then were upset by Mercer. Victories over UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and then at Virginia Tech & Syracuse in their last 2, have them into the field. They are holding off Duke for now, and of course host the Blue Devils in a huge "bubble" showdown in the ACC tonight. Rounding out the "bubble", Western Kentucky finds themselves in "First 4 Out" territory, thanks largely to an impressive non-conference win at Alabama. The Hilltoppers are behind Louisiana Tech for the top spot in Conference USA. Duke, Saint Louis, and Indiana wrap up the "First 4 Out" category. Utah State, Seton Hall, Minnesota, and Richmond round out the group of "Next 4 Out" teams. As always, there was plenty to cover, but we made it through, and without further ado, here is the @sportsguychris Projecting the 2021 NCAA tournament - 2nd Edition!: 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS (#-denotes current conference leader and that conference's automatic bid; record in ( ) followed by NET ranking, and record [W-L] in Quad 1 games this season) (^1)(-1) = indicates movement/changes from last edition 1 GONZAGA (24-0) # 1, 7-0 1 MICHIGAN (18-1) # 2, 7-1 1 BAYLOR (18-1) # 3, 6-1 1 ILLINOIS (18-6) 6, 8-5 (^1) - 2 IOWA (18-7) 5, 5-6 2 OHIO STATE (18-7) 8, 7-5 (-1) 2 HOUSTON (20-3) 4, 2-1 (^2) 2 ALABAMA (19-6) # 9, 7-4 - 3 WEST VIRGINIA (17-6) 12, 6-6 3 VILLANOVA (15-4) # 11, 2-3 3 FLORIDA STATE (14-4) # 15, 3-3 (-1) 3 VIRGINIA (16-6) 17, 2-4 - 4 KANSAS (18-8) 10, 6-8 (^1) 4 ARKANSAS (19-5) 19, 6-4 (^1) 4 TEXAS TECH (15-8) 14, 5-7 4 TENNESSEE (16-7) 22, 5-5 - 5 COLORADO (19-7) 13, 3-4 (^1) 5 CREIGHTON (17-6) 23, 4-2 (-1) 5 USC (19-6) 25, 3-3 (-1) 5 TEXAS (14-7) 27, 4-7 - 6 OKLAHOMA STATE (17-6) 33, 7-4 (^2) 6 WISCONSIN (16-9) 24, 4-7 6 OKLAHOMA (14-8) 30, 5-5 (-3) 6 PURDUE (16-8) 21, 5-7 ^1 - 7 LOYOLA CHI (21-4) # 16, 1-2 (-1) 7 BYU (19-5) 20, 3-3 7 FLORIDA (13-6) 26, 5-3 7 SAN DIEGO STATE (19-4) # 18, 4-4 (^1) - 8 MARYLAND (15-10) 29, 5-9 (^2) 8 CLEMSON (15-5) 34, 3-5 8 VIRGINIA TECH (15-5) 45, 2-2 (-2) 8 MISSOURI (14-7) 47, 6-4 (-1) - 9 UCLA (17-6) # 38, 2-4 (^1) 9 BOISE STATE (18-6) 35, 2-4 (-1) 9 OREGON (17-5) 44, 3-3 9 RUTGERS (13-10) 32, 4-8 - 10 ST. BONAVENTURE (13-4) # 28, 2-2 10 LSU (14-8) 31, 3-7 (-1) 10 *LOUISVILLE (13-5) 45, 1-4 10 COLORADO STATE (16-4) 43, 2-3 (^1) - 11 NORTH CAROLINA (15-9) 41, 2-6 11 XAVIER (13-5) 48, 2-2 (-1) 11 DRAKE (24-3) 42, 1-1 -2 11 *GEORGIA TECH (13-8) 40, 2-6 @ 11 *UCONN (12-6) 36, 2-3 @ - 12 WICHITA STATE (13-4) # 66, 2-2 12 WINTHROP (21-1) # 68 12 WRIGHT STATE (18-5) # 63 (^2) 12 VCU (17-6) 37, 2-4 (-3) @ 12 *MICHIGAN STATE (13-10) 77, 4-8 @ - 13 BELMONT (24-3) # 81 (-1) 13 UCSB (17-4) # 51 13 LIBERTY (20-5) # 82 13 *LA TECH (19-6) # 72 - 14 TOLEDO (20-6) #58 14 ABILENE CHRI (19-3) # 86 14 *NAVY (15-2) # 84 14 UMBC (14-5) # - 15 UNCG (18-8) # 91 15 EASTERN WA (12-6) # 15 GRAND CANYON (14-5) # 15 JAMES MADISON (13-6) # - 16 SIENA (11-3) # 16 S DAKOTA ST (15-6) # 16 PRARIE VIEW (11-4) # 16 TEXAS STATE (18-6) # 16 NC A&T (11-10) # 16 *BRYANT (14-5) # ---- LAST 4 BYES --------------------- COLORADO STATE (15-4) 43, 2-3 NORTH CAROLINA (15-8) 41, 2-6 XAVIER (13-5) 48, 2-2 -1 DRAKE (24-3) 42, 1-1 - LAST 4 IN (PLAY-IN GAMES) ---------------- GEORGIA TECH (13-8) 40, 2-6 UCONN (12-6) 36, 2-3 VCU (17-6) 37, 2-4 MICHIGAN STATE (13-10) 77, 4-8 - FIRST 4 OUT -------------------- WKU (17-5) 74, 1-3 DUKE (11-9) 59, 1-3 SAINT LOUIS (14-5) 50, 2-2 ^ INDIANA (12-12) 57, 2-9 -- - NEXT 4 OUT ------------------- UTAH STATE (16-7) 49, 2-4 MINNESOTA (13-12) 69, 4-9 -- SETON HALL (13-10) 53, 3-6 -- RICHMOND (13-7) 54, 3-4 - - STILL ALIVE -------------------- STANFORD (14-11) 64, 4-5 -- SMU (11-4) 55, 0-3 MEMPHIS (14-6) 60, 0-2 OLE MISS (13-10) 61, 3-4 - COLGATE 11-1, 11, 0-0 * - New to the field this week -- = Dropped out of the field @ = Denotes Final Four In; Play-In Games Participants ---- Chris Elgersma Thank you for the support as always. You can find me on IG & YouTube at @sportsguychris and be sure to check out my podcast with my good buddy Mikee: "The Balls and Beards Podcast" available on Spotify, Apple Pocketcasts, Google Podcasts, Anchor, and Breaker! We keep you up to date on everything in the world of the NFL & NBA!
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