NCAA / projections
Projecting the NCAA Tournament with @sportsguychris - Final Edition
Projecting the NCAA Tournament with @sportsguychris - Final Edition Welcome back everyone! Selection Sunday is finally here!! After a very busy championship Saturday, there are just 6 automatic bids left to be claimed in conference tournament title games today. The Ivy League, Big TEN, SEC, American Athletic, Sun Belt, and Atlantic 10 conference champions will all be decided in action before the bracket is officially revealed. With just a total of 12 teams in action, the field has been established for the most part. None of the games today figure to have an impact on the "bubble". So for those at the backend of the projected bracket, all there is to do now is wait it out and see if they hear their name called later today when the official bracket is unveiled. We start right at the top with the projected #1 seeds. The Duke Blue Devils are clearly a different team with Zion Williamson back in the lineup. The projected #1 pick helped lead the Blue Devils past rival North Carolina on Friday, and then knock off a red hot Florida State squad yesterday to claim the ACC tournament championship. The run through the ACC tourny, along with picking up 3 additional "quality" wins (Syracuse, UNC, FSU) in the process, has the Blue Devils slated as the top overall seed. The Dukies are followed by Virginia, who split the ACC regular season crown with UNC, Gonzaga, and Tennessee. The Vols ascended to the 1-line following their victory over Kentucky in the SEC semifinals. A victory over Auburn today will keep the Vols on the 1-line. A loss and they will be a 2-seed. The other team with an opportunity to possibly claim the final 1-seed with a victory today are the Michigan State Spartans. A victory over rival Michigan would certainly merit consideration, (especially when taking into account the depth and overall quality of the Big TEN this year). If MSU does win, I will bump them up to the final 1-seed and slide Gonzaga down to a 2-seed. Joining MSU on the current 2-line are North Carolina, Kentucky, and Michigan. Houston, Florida State, LSU, and Texas Tech are the 3-seeds, with Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Kansas rounding out the 4-seeds. After the top seeds, there wasn't too much movement in mid-seed-range territory. One notable exception was Iowa State, who rose from a 7 to a 6 following their impressive run through the Big XII tournament. Nevada, Buffalo, and Marquette round out a very formidable set of 6-seeds. Seton Hall was able to capitalize on their solid week, and move up to an 8-seed. Even with a lower "NET" rating then to be expected for a team with this kind of resume, I believe the Hall has the resume of an 8 not a 10. The Washington Huskies were the big tumbler after falling to Oregon in the Pac-12 title game by 20 yesterday. The Huskies' metrics are certainly favorable, but the loss caused them to slide down from 7/8 range to a 10-seed. Oregon's breakthrough has the Ducks slated as an 11-seed. At the backend of the bracket, St. John's, N.C. State, TCU, and Belmont are the "last four in", with Temple dropping out of the field to make room for the aforementioned Oregon Ducks. Temple, Ohio State, UNC-Greensboro, and Furman are the far less exciting "first four out". As far as the higher seeds, St. Bonaventure has jumped into the field as the projected A-10 winner. They battle Saint Louis today for the Atlantic 10s automatic bid and are currently slated as a 13-seed. An eventful Championship week is coming to a close, and the official bracket reveal is less than 6 hours away, so without further ado, here is the final edition of projecting the NCAA tournament with @sportsguychris: 1 - seeds: *Duke (29-5), Virginia (29-3), *Michigan State (28-6), Gonzaga (30-3) 2 - seeds: North Carolina (27-6), Tennessee (29-5), Kentucky (27-6), Michigan (28-6) 3 - seeds: Houston (31-3), Florida State (27-7), LSU (26-6), Texas Tech (26-6) 4 - seeds: Purdue (23-9), Wisconsin (23-10), Kansas State (25-8), Kansas (25-9) 5 - seeds: *Villanova (25-9), *Auburn (26-9), *Cincinnati (28-6), Virginia Tech (24-8) 6 - seeds: *Buffalo (31-3), Nevada (29-4), Marquette (24-9), *Iowa State (23-11) 7 - seeds: *Wofford (29-4), Mississippi State (23-10), Maryland (22-10), *Utah State (28-6) 8 - seeds: Seton Hall (20-13), VCU (25-7), Louisville (20-13), UCF (23-8) 9 - seeds: Iowa (22-11), Minnesota (21-13), Ole Miss (20-12), Baylor (19-13) 10 - seeds: Syracuse (20-13), Washington (26-8), Oklahoma (19-13), Florida (19-15) 11 - seeds: *Murray State (27-4), *Oregon (23-12), Arizona State (22-10) [Last four in / 1st Rd / Play-in game] St. John's (21-12) / N.C. State (22-11) 12 - seeds: *Saint Mary's (CA) (22-11), *New Mexico State (30-4), *UC-Irvine (30-5) [Last four in / 1st Rd / Play-in game] TCU (20-13) / Belmont (26-5) 13 - seeds: *Liberty (28-6), *Saint Louis (22-12), *Vermont (27-6), *Northeastern (23-10) 14 - seeds: *Yale (22-7), *Old Dominion (26-8), *Northern Kentucky (26-8), *Georgia State (24-9) 15 - seeds: * Montana (26-8), *Colgate (24-10), *Bradley (20-14), *North Dakota State (18-15) 16 - seeds: *Abilene Christian (27-6), *Gardner-Webb (23-11) [Last Four Automatic Bids / 1st Rd / Play-in Game] *Fairleigh Dickinson (20-13) / *N.C. Central (18-15) [Last Four Automatic Bids / 1st Rd / Play-in Game] *Prarie View (22-12) / *Iona (17-15) --------------------------------------------------------- *-Automatic Bid winner based on Conference Tournament Champion/ Current highest seed remaining for games still to be decided Well there you have it ladies & gentlemen one final look at the projected bracket before the field is officially announced later today! As always, I would love to hear your thoughts in the comments section below - who do I have right? Who do I have wrong? Who is missing, over-seeded, under-seeded, etc? Thank you all for your support, enjoy the final couple of games today, and get those pencils ready for the official bracket reveal!! Be sure to check back for plenty of NCAA tournament coverage! As always, happy reading & writing!
More posts are coming soon. Write your own!