We are going into week 5 of the NFL season and for fans, it has been an exciting rollercoaster ride so far. Scoring is through the roof and for the most part, the games have been so much fun to watch. I have been a football fan for 30 years and I can't remember ever seeing so many big plays and touchdowns scored. It feels like we are at the peak of a movement that has been on the rise for the past several years as the NFL has transformed into a passing league. A move that I personally think has been very calculated and planned by the league and the rewards are already being seen.
Being a fantasy football junkie and a stats geek, I have been seeing the landscape of the league changing for years now. 10 years ago a star quarterback had some real value. Both in the NFL and in fantasy leagues. You wanted to make sure that you had one of the elite QB's on your team. There were usually 5-8 that you could be comfortable with and after that, it started to become slim pickings. Getting a 20-25 point fantasy week from your quarterback was great. In today's NFL, finding a QB that will put up numbers is a none issue. 20-25 fantasy points are now the average in a league where we are seeing 30 plus point fantasy games all the time and now this year things are at a whole new level. 40 has become the new 30. We see 40 point games weekly and by multiple quarterbacks.
The way the game is being played today is different. Teams are taking to the skies more and more and it's not just for short yardage pickups. We're talking more big plays through the air and this is translating into more touchdowns and points. So far through 4 weeks, the NFL is on pace to shatter previous scoring records and put up passing numbers that have never been seen before. There have been a total of 234 passing touchdowns so far this year. That is an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per team per game. The league average has never been higher than 1.6 and has historically hovered around the 1.3 range, that is until the past several years when passing has become so important.
To put that into perspective, there were 741 passing touchdowns all of last season. If the current trend continues the final totals for this season have the potential to end up over 900 total passing TD's. League totals have only eclipsed 800 three times in the past with a high of 842. By the way, all of these totals have been put up in the last 6 years. The same trend can be seen in the number of pass yards we are seeing. Quarterbacks are currently on pace to put up over 130,000 total passing yards this season. A number that has also never been passed. The previous record is 124,843 put up in 2015. Stats source
With all this increased offence, I find myself having those "did you see that?" moments more than ever. It feels like I am on the edge of my seat just a little more while watching games.
<grammarly-btn>While talking to some co-workers earlier this week about the games I couldn't help but think, the games are just more fun to watch right now. This was a huge statement for me to make considering my obsession with the NFL and just how much I like watching the game but the reality is, the level of excitement is higher while watching the games. The high-flying offensive play is fun to watch. Big plays and touchdowns are what we cheer for when watching football. Fans want to see the stars shine and that is what they are doing. This increase in the level of fun the league is providing for fans has been seen int he numbers for the NFL so far this year. According to a report this week, league ratings are showing slight increases. So far this season the ratings are 1-2 percent higher than last year. NFL ratings have been falling over the past few years so a slight increase is a welcomed sight I am sure. This overall rating increase comes at the same time as primetime games continue to see a decrease in viewership. Source
Are more fans tuning in on Sunday now due to the increase in the entertainment quality of the game? I think it is a distinct possibility.
What is behind this increase in the fun? As I see it, the continued increases in passing numbers and scoring can be attributed to a few different things. Some of these things are purely due to coincidence and circumstances while others are very calculated and planned.
First of all, playcalling has evolved over the past few years as offensive coordinators are looking for new ways to beat defences. The creativity of plays has offences making more big plays and passing is a big part of that. The evolution os the read-option int he NFL and new formations have opened up passing options for teams and coordinators are taking advantage of it. I personally see a shift in the coaching world. We are starting to see more young coaches getting hired and they are bringing a new dynamic way of thinking to the games. The league has long been a run to set up the pass league but as the old regime of coaches starts to be replaced we are seeing a change in the play calling and the creativity in offensive schemes.
<grammarly-btn>To go along with this new age offensive thinking is the emergence of a young crop of quarterbacks that are playing at an extremely high level. These young stud passers in the league combined with the seasoned stars that are already there are evolving into what might possibly go down as one of the most prolific QB eras in history. Young stars like Wentz, Goff, Watson, Mahomes, Mayfield are already putting up big numbers in their young careers and there doesn't appear to be any end in sight. Over the years, it has been normal for young quarterbacks to struggle as they go through the growing pains of becoming acquainted with the speed of the NFL. Although they do have some ups and downs, this class of young signal callers has shown the ability to shake off those mistakes and continue chucking the rock and putting up great numbers. The future at the QB position is certainly bright.
<grammarly-btn>Finally, the way I see it, the NFL has been wanting this transition for a long time and has played a big role in making the quarterbacks the face of the league. I have already mentioned how much fun it is to watch all this increased passing and I think the league has been wanting this shift in the game as well. A more fun and exciting NFL is an NFL that more fans are going to be interested in watching. Let's face it, as important as a good defence can be, it is the offence that puts butts in the seats and gets people turning their television on. The NFL fan that is looking to watch a defensive battle is the minority and exciting offensive football sells.
I think that the league recognized this and started to make changes that have translated in this spike in offence. The changes that stand out to me are the ones that deal specifically with teams ability to defend the pass. In recent years we have seen rules that make it more difficult to be a corner int he NFL. From the amount of contact allowed at the line of scrimmage to the rules surrounding pass interference, wide receivers have been gaining advantages over corners that quarterbacks are able to exploit. The most notable rule changes have to do with the defences ability to punish and wear down quarterbacks. Traditionally, defences would attempt to put as many hits on the quarterback as possible and make throwing the ball a tough task. This style of play is no longer effective since the introductions of a variety of rules that are intended to protect QB's. In today's NFL, you can barely touch a quarterback without getting called for a penalty and this has made a huge difference in quarterbacks ability to be successful. They have more time to throw the ball and take less physical punishment throughout a game. The NFL has long stated that a higher scoring offensive game is a goal and new rule changes continue to prove this as defences are being cut off at the knees.
<grammarly-btn>This fan is torn when it comes to these changes. I am enjoying the offensive explosion this year and hope it continues. The games are fun to watch and who doesn't like big play football. At the same time, I am so frustrated by the fact that the quarterbacks are being treated handle with kid gloves. It is the NFL and hitting is just part of the game. Defences need to have the ability to make things difficult for quarterbacks. It seems like I am destined to cheer and complain at the same time this year. What are your thoughts on the offensive explosion this season? Are you enjoying the big plays and touchdowns or do you think it has become too much? I look forward to reading you comments below.
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