Yesterday's matches did not go as anticipated, all three of my picks lost! All be it one was very close to coming through and the other's weren't far off so given they were all the underdog's it wasn't such as bad day from a forecast point of view. In particular Isner vs Khachanov went to a final set tie break where the American had 2 match points he failed to convert. But at the same time he had to save two match points to win the second set tie break so on balance my pick didn't deserve to win. Still the end tie break was won 10-8 to Khachanov so that was very touch and go, Isners 2.60 odds were a good shout.
LIVE Update: Zverev Injured: Tries to Play Through: I think it's about time tennis players stop turning up to matches and indeed tournaments injured. It's not fair on the crowd, other players who could take their places and indeed anyone who bets on the game before hand. Zverev is the culprit this time who is clearly suffering from an unannounced shoulder injury but refuses to withdraw from the match. It's not something he's just injured now, it's clearly a problem he brought onto court at the beginning of the match. He tanked in the first set 6-1. Plus both players teams are squabbling behind the netting in the crowd. Players behave dishonestly like this because they are desperate for points or progress so they will try to get through matches and hope for a lucky win or even worse just to claim the money for attendance. It begs the question how fair it is for people who bet on these matches.
And there goes the match, Zverev capitulates and for the first time loses to the Russian 6-1, 6-2, I really wish he would have withdrawn after the first set, very disappointed with Zverev deciding to continue through the whole match with an injury, he was a completely different player today. Khachanov played a solid game but he didn't have an opponent on the other side of the court, more like a ball boy playing would be opponent on the training ground.
Original Article Continued:
Dimitrov also gave a good outing vs Cilic at 2.80 so I wasn't too disappointed with his performance, my main disappointment came in the total reversal of last weeks Vienna's final where Anderson went down in straight sets to Nishikori who pretty much produced the performance Anderson produced in their previous match to defeat him 6-4, 6-4. That was a surprise for me, the South African had an off day on serve that's for sure.
Still since I started my official predictions blog here at Scorum I am so far 11 wins and 9 losses including yesterday's 3 losses. Given some of those wins were long odds if you were a betting man you'd be up 50% so far over two weeks. I hope to keep my win percentage a boost today with two Quarter Final matches I have my sights set on in Paris. Those are:
Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov
Dominic Thiem vs Jack Sock
Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov
The first of the two matches for me is a straight sets win for Zverev. Interestingly enough out of Zverev's last 10 games he is 8 wins and 2 losses. All 8 of his wins of amazingly come by way of straight sets (2-0) and given that I watched Karen Khachanov struggle in Vienna vs a player of similar calibre to Zverev - Kei Nishikori, I feel he will also so capitulate here in a similar manner against another great baseline defender and solid hitter Alexander Zverev. The German next gen player has a brilliant two hand backhand that goes way beyond the capabilities of Khachanov's plus a piercing forehand.
Both shots are hit with an element of safety, he usually achieves good net clearance and depth with his shots compared to Khachanov's far more riskier and one dimensional power hitting.
Zverev has a great serve too and standing at the same height as Khachanov can produce the power the Russian can but out rally him. There's a reason Alexander is the most successful young player on tour with 3 Masters titles including one of those coming this year plus a record of 52 wins and 17 losses in 2018. At the age of 21 he has the makings of a Grand Slam winner that's for sure. Zverev leads the head to head 2-0 including a tight 3-2 victory in the French Open earlier this year but I think this time things will be rather simpler for the German who is bound to frustrate Khachanov's aggressive style of play far more than Isner managed. Zverev and Khachanov maybe the same height but the German has better speed on court than the Russian and will get more balls back into play.
Zverev has yet to drop a set in Paris, I can't see the Russian being the one to take the first one from him.
Match Prediction:
Zverev to win this match 2-0 at odds of 2.07. One of the sets may go to a tie break but Zverev should prevail comfortably if that's the case.
Jack Sock vs Dominic Thiem
Has Jack Sock finally turned the corner in his year of abysmal singles tennis? Currently even with two wins in Paris Sock is 9 wins and 20 losses in singles in 2018. His previous two matches in Paris were both straight set wins with his best match coming against Richard Gasquet in the first round. Gasquet has been in decent form recently even taking out Kevin Anderson in Tokyo.
Yesterday saw Sock tear through Malek Jaziri who had upset Fernando Verdasco. In the first set Sock won 6-0 crushing the Tunisian. His victory yesterday saw him win two matches in a row for the first time since November 2017 in the ATP Finals in London. Coincidentally before that tournament he won the title he is defending today, the Paris Masters! You would not consider Sock the defending champion here in Paris given his form in 2018 where he has lost to players as high as 153 and 196 in the world! I covered his 2018 turmoil in a previous article here.
When Jack Sock's forehand is working it is lethal and he is capable of taking most players out if he keeps his level high. His weakness is his backhand which isn't the most sound or reliable at times but against Gasquet and Jaziri in Paris it has looked far more consistent. The American also has an excellent net game that he has yet to properly incorporate into his singles game. When he does he will be a far stronger player for it. His doubles experience with fellow American legend Mike Bryan has seen Sock win 2 Grand Slams this year alone.
His opponent today is the clay court specialist Dominic Thiem who this year finally managed to put together a decent run on the hard courts. In all his previous years he has really suffered heavy losses on hard courts. He won only his second hard court title in St Petersburg this year and currently has 3 ATP titles for the year to his name.
Thiem has wicked forehand and backhand, he usually goes for the big shots just like Sock so expect this contest to be one with plenty of winners. Thiem like Zverev has an impressive win loss record this year coming in at 50 wins and only 17 defeats. He was the finalist at the Madrid Masters and French Open. Clay is clearly his best surface for performances but he is going to have to make the transition from clay to hard if he wants a chance of becoming a tennis great and winning a Grand Slam. At 25 he hasn't got too many peak years left in him but even considering the urgency I don't feel he is ready for true hard court success at Masters level just yet.
In Paris Thiem has recorded admirable victories against inform players Giles Simon and Borna Coric. Against Coric he had to recover from a break down in the third to win. Sock may not have the speed of Coric but he has different weapons that can trouble Thiem, his power is a match for the Austrians. Sock favours both clay and hard court unlike Thiem who is mainly clay. The American beat Thiem here in Paris two years ago 6-2, 6-4 and the head to head between them is equal at 2-2. Obviously Thiem is fancied to win due to his success and form this year compared to Sock's polar opposite. But with two straight set wins here I feel Sock is in with a chance vs Thiem on a hard surface.
Match Prediction:
At 3.20 I like the odds for Sock, I'd give him a 45% chance of winning here so I feel his odds are attractive for an outright win. He is the current defending champion here (somehow!) and lady luck could finally be smiling upon him once more. If he can get his forehand firing and manage to take the first set, it could give him enough momentum and confidence to believe he can win here.
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