I'm making these weekly posts as a way to track my personal pre-game handicapping results along with my live betting action on Belgian Teams. These posts will usually contain some insights when it comes down to my general approach and what I do to increase my chance of beating the market.
After 7 winning weeks in a row picking up a massive +15.828 units, this week saw some regression to the mean giving back around 3 units in total. Betting results never only go up in a straight line and taking losses at times is part of the game especially when having a high volume style. I'm always trying to keep it real showing a true picture of what it means to make long term profit from betting sports and losing results are part of that. I would argue that this is one aspect that differentiates most winning from losing players. The ones that aren't profitable in the long run usually just post their winnings and don't keep any kind of record whatsoever which helps them stay in denial.
I literally know only 1 sports betting related blog that doesn't shy away from also posing losing results which is daily25.com . If anyone knows more blogs that do this over the course of multiple years, I would love to see them posted in the comments!
I would say last season was a good example on how things don't just only go up as I had something of a long losing streak going down -14 units over the course of nearly 1000 Bets! While part of it was certainly because of less sharp handicapping, it was still nothing out of the ordinary and perfectly normal within the long term profit expectation. I've said this before but properly keeping a long term record with a graph really helps in putting swings in perspective. A 1000+ bet losing streak in a sample of ~3000 bets with overall +4.44% ROI results looks perfectly healthy.
Copytip
The beauty of high volume when you are profitable is that despite the swings, profit is more certain and consistent. Being extremely selective vastly highers the chance of a great ROI but when you only take 100 bets in a year, it simply depends too much on short term variance to make a living out of.
I have been testing out Copytip this season and even though I went in quite skeptical, it is actually working out pretty well and I'm liking the entire system that has been set up. Pretty much all my stronger and more selective pre-game and Live bets are taken there making it possible for anyone to follow automatically getting the same good odds without having to be online manually placing the bets. I also really like the challenge of rising on the leaderboard. The potential earnings for the work I'm putting in regardless are quite nice also. After 2 months (and quite the hot start) I managed to pick up 12 copiers already and am in the top 20 of the best performers.
One of the main advantages of being able to be selective is that a losing week on all the bets I take myself combined doesn't have to mean that the selective bets also lost. (this also works the other way around). This week was one of the good ones where the 5 bets also taken at Copytip actually resulted in a profit.
I do still share all the bets I take on copytip on my blog and on the SBC Discord. This is not always easy as copytip will obviously get the priority. This week was one of those cases where a late live bet (Over 9 Ck) was successfully taken on copytip but while putting it also in the discord the next corner was made. On the other hand, late +0 bets are pretty much impossible to take on Copytip because of the turnover fees while they are quite able on Discord. I wasn't sure exactly how to count everything and I want to keep it consistent but also fair. So I'll be splitting up both records not counting the ones where there is a goal within a small posting window. I will be doing another live bet record update post somewhere next week. (See Previous Update)
Discord Live-Bets Week 10
Oleksandria vs AA Gent Under 9.5 CK @ 1.925 (20' 1-1) FT 4-6 LOST
Waasland vs Oostende Under 5 @ 2.02 (39' 2-1) FT 3-1 WON
Standard +0.25 @ 1.884 (28' 1-0) FT 2-2 WON
Moeskroen +0.25 @ 2.10 (68' 0-1) FT 2-1 LOST
So far it has been a very solid season doing over +7% ROI but so it was last year. If anything, that did teach me a valuable lesson (even though I already knew it) that staying sharp all years even at times everything seems easy is of vital importance. There is an international break this weekend and I will have 10 days away from Betting to recharge the batteries.
Let me know in the comments how your own betting week was or leave a link to your own results tracking post and I'll make sure to give it an upvote!
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