Outright Premier League Bets - Current Progress

Prior to the start of the 2018/19 Premier League season, I took some outright bets in the form of a yankee bet which consists of 11 bets in total for 4 bet selections. The yankee bet consists of 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 four-fold accumulator. The advantage of a yankee bet is that it limits your risk of losing if just one of your selections turns out incorrect. The downside, however, is that the payout is less than if you had staked an identical amount of just a four-fold accumulator for those 4 selections.

Bet #1 - Liverpool to win premier without Manchester City @ 2,2

Liverpool’s impressive second half form of the 2017/18 season combined with the signing of Van Dijk and Alisson assured me that Liverpool could easily win the League with Man City being taken out of the picture for that bet. Ultimately, I did not expect Liverpool to perform so strongly to actually supersede Man City’s dominance. With Liverpool’s loss to Man City and the gap at 4 points now, I am once again glad that I did not take Liverpool to win outright but am now more concerned about their gap to Tottenham in third who are trailing by 6 points. Lots can change but I see that Liverpool will either win or place second in the league. Having played Man City and Arsenal in the second half already puts them at an advantage overTottenham who still need to face the rest of the top 6 and will most certainly drop points.

Live Win probability (Current Bet) - 94,34%

A brief look at the best odds available at present :

1. Liverpool to win @ 1,85  
2. Liverpool to win W/O Manchester City @ 1,06 

My pick for rest of season: Liverpool to win @1,85

Bet #2 - Huddersfield to be relegated @ 2,2

Relegation is always a tricky decision to make. The relegation zone occupies many team over the season but form can change and teams dead bottom can improve. Just look at Crystal Palace last season. I went back and forth between Cardiff, Huddersfield and Brighton to be my choice for this bet. Cardiff as newcomers seemed most likely to be relegated but they have put on some strong performances to be 2 points clear of relegation as at 9/1/2019. With Brighton just scrapping through last season, I viewed them as a possibility of being relegated, as well as being slightly tempted by higher odds of 3 compared to 2,2 for Huddersfield, but they have pulled of some big top 6 upsets and that sees them 10 points clear of relegation. I definitely see Brighton being safe from relegation. Huddersfield continue to struggle, with only 10 points from 21 games. It seems as if goal scoring is their main issue as they have scored only 13 goals this season (an average of 0,62 per game). The last three seasons have required a team to obtain between 36-40 points to place 17th and avoid relegation. Based on this, Huddersfield will need to earn 26-30 points from 17 games by the end of the season. Their current deficit to safety is 8 points.

Live Win probability (Current Bet) - 90,91%

A brief look at the best odds available at present :

1. Huddersfield to be relegated @ 1,1 
2. Huddersfield to finish bottom @ 1,4 

My pick for rest of season: Huddersfield to finish bottom @ 1,4

Bet #3 - Top goalscorer Mo Salah @ 6

Salah’s breakout season for Liverpool in the 2017/18 season saw him take the golden boot with 32 goals, two more than Harry Kane. There is arguably three contenders for the golden boot this season; Kane, Salah and Aubameyang. Neither player has pulled away and it is still level after 21 gameweeks. Kane is always a threat but has been outshined by Son this term. The likes of Eriksen, Alli, Moura, Son and Kane provide so many attacking options for Spurs that Kane cannot dominate the scoring. The same for Liverpool with Mane, Salah and Firmino. Firmino has shown more form but Salah is still their leading scorer. Aubameyang is Arsenal’s main man upfront but he hasn’t been producing too much with Arsenal struggling slightly as of late. With Kane and Aubameyang at 14 goals a piece, Salah at 13 and both Aguero and Hazard at 10, I feel the golden boot will be won by either Salah or Aubameyang. They possess the ability to continue scoring goals and don’t suffer droughts like Kane. I think a brace or hat trick will spark a run for Salah and remain confident that he will earn his second title this year.

Live Win probability (Current Bet) - 30,30%

A brief look at the best odds available at present :

1. Kane @ 2,5 
2. Aubameyang @ 3,33 
3. Salah @ 3,33

My pick for rest of season: Salah Top Goalscorer @ 3,33

Bet #4 - Arsenal to finish top 4 @ 3

Unai Emery’s appointment has sparked an improvement in Arsenal and prior to the start of the season, I was confident that Arsenal would finish in the top 4 with relative ease. Their loss to Liverpool and draw and Brighton saw them drop 5 points to Chelsea in fourth. They were, however, in reach of a Champions League spot for most of the season and a fourth place is still in reach. With only three points separating Arsenal in fifth from Chelsea in Fourth, an Arsenal Win on 19 January against Chelsea could rejuvenate their chances. Arsenal continue to be poor defensively conceding nearly double the amount of goals compared to Chelsea. A focus on a stronger defense should see Arsenal clawing back a fourth place. Manchester United also pose a threat being 3 points behind Arsenal but we are yet to see their true ability against the top 6 squads and thus I don’t see them finishing in the top 4 as of this moment. The last two seasons required a team to obtain at least 75 points to finish in the top 4 while the 15/16 required only 6 points. Arsenal are on target to finish with 74 points this season so it will be close based on these stats but a stronger defense will be key in my opinion to allow them to improve of their first half of the season.

Live Win probability (Current Bet) - 36,36%

A brief look at the best odds available at present :

1. Chelsea top 4 @ 1,4 
2. Arsenal top 4 @ 2,75 
3. Manchester United @ 2,75 

My pick for rest of season: Arsenal Top 4 @ 2,75

Possible payouts

I see Bet 1 and 2 being virtually certain which will provide some of my stake back but I need at least 3/4 of my selections in order to turn a profit. The payouts are included below as I took $100 per selection which is a total stake of $1100.

I used https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/accumulator.html which allows you to enter your odds, selections, and stake to then calculate your payout for all types of bet combinations from a single stake to a Lucky 31.

Payouts:

1. 12 - $484
   
2. 13 - $1320
3. 14 - $660
4. 23 - $1320
5. 24 - $660
6. 34- $1800
7. 123 - $2904
8. 124 - $1452
9. 134 - $3960
10. 234- $3960
11. 1234 - $8712 

Total Return = $27232

Conclusion

Still 5 more months until the results of this accumulator but I am also currently watching the odds for outright bets that end in May at the end of the season. I’m looking to find some value bets that I can use to generate some profit within a few months before the end of the season. More of that in an upcoming post!