Chapeconse VS Gremio (Sunday Jul 29th)
Hosts -0 @1.73+ 

There was 1.884 at Pinnacle when I registered the bet at blogabet

I estimate the hosts winning chances between 40-45% and the visitors at some 25% which makes this level ball opportunity rather interesting.

Let's dig into the matter...

Chapeconse has a solid home record of 3-4-0 (W-D-L) so far this season at Serie A, which means they usually collect the very most of their points at home and this is not exactly breaking news, it's a pattern verified season after season.

I believe the markets are considering just the "chance" of Gremio using subs, but I just read local news confirming the use of sub team. 

Gremio has had a horrible record using subs during the past 18 months, and the fans usually are very angry when the speculations about them being fielded arise once again.

You must completely disregard everything I wrote about Gremio when we are talking about sub team. There are several issues which include lack of a true formation (each match they play is a different thing, excessive turnover of players, the "sub team" always means a different list of names and not just formation) amongst other issues such as specific squad depth problems such as at the Striker and Full backs positions.

I strongly believe that the lines will fall to Chapecoense -0.25 @1.8 or so in the upcoming hours, and I suggest a bet on level ball Chape, even if you only want to hold aiming a potential hedge strategy.

Any doubts about the post/pick feel free to ask me at the comments! Happy to explain further