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UFC 227 Picks and Breakdown
Here at FightOdds.io veteran MMA journalist Adam Martin gives his complete picks and breakdowns for each and every UFC fight card. UFC 227 takes place Saturday, August 4 at Staples Centre in Los Angeles, California, and Adam’s picks are below. Bantamweight bout: T.J. Dillashaw (-115) vs Cody Garbrandt (-105) Dillashaw (15-3) is 32 and he’s 11-3 in the UFC. The American is riding a three-fight win streak with a KO win over Garbrandt in his last fight at UFC 217 to steal back his bantamweight title. Prior to that, Dillashaw had beaten John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao after losing his belt via close split decision to Dominick Cruz. Garbrandt (11-1) is 27 and he’s 6-1 in the UFC. The American had a quick rise up the bantamweight ladder and won the title with an upset win over Cruz, but in his first title defense he was stopped by Dillashaw for his first career loss. I don’t see any reason the fight is going to go differently this time around, and frankly I don’t believe Garbrandt deserves an immediate rematch. Like the first fight, I’m taking Dillashaw to get the KO. Pick: T.J. Dillashaw Flyweight bout: Demetrious Johnson (-500) vs Henry Cejudo (+400) Johnson (27-2-1) is 31 and he’s 15-1-1 in the UFC. The American is one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in the world today and he is currently riding a 14-fight unbeaten streak. He has defended the flyweight title in 11 straight fights including a beautiful submission win over Ray Borg his last time out. Cejudo (12-2) is 31 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. He is coming off of two straight wins over Sergio Pettis and Wilson Reis. These two previously fought, with Johnson knocking out Cejudo in devastating fashion at UFC 197. Like in the main event, I don’t see any reason this fight is going to go differently this time around. Although Cejudo has improved, so has Johnson. I think Johnson defends his belt once again, and the only question is whether he wins a decision or if he can finish Cejudo again. I think he can get the finish. Pick: Demetrious Johnson Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson (+335) vs Renato Carneiro (-420) Moicano (12-1-1) is 29 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian is coming off of a decision win over Calvin Kattar that helped him bounce back from his first career loss to Brian Ortega. Previously, Moicano defeated Jeremy Stephens to make a name for himself. Swanson (25-9) is 34 and he’s 10-5 in the UFC. The American is a long-time featherweight title contender but has been down on his luck lately as he dropped fights to Ortega and Frankie Edgar his last two times out. I have not liked what I’ve seen from Swanson lately while Moicano has been super impressive. I think the Brazilian continues to make a name for himself at 145lbs with a big win over Swanson, likely by decision. Pick: Renato Carneiro Strawweight bout: Polyana Viana Mota (-225) vs JJ Aldrich (+185) Viana (10-1) is 26 and she’s 1-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian is on a six-fight win streak at the moment with all of those wins coming by stoppage including a submission win over Maia Stevenson in her UFC debut. Aldrich (6-2) is 2-1 in the UFC with decision wins over Danielle Taylor and Chan-Mi Jeon in her last two bouts. This is a tough one because even though Viana has a good record she really hasn’t been tested by anyone good, and Aldrich is a pretty underrated fighter. Given the odds, I’ll go with Aldrich to get the upset. I think she can take the fight into deep waters and grind out a decision win. Pick: JJ Aldrich Middleweight bout: Thiago Santos (-360) vs Kevin Holland (+300) Santos (17-6) is 34 and he’s 9-5 in the UFC. The Brazilian is one of the most feared knockout artists in the middleweight division as he owns eight brutal TKO wins in the UFC alone. After a four-fight win streak by KO, Santos was knocked out himself by Dave Branch in his last fight. Holland (12-3) is 25 and he’s making his UFC debut. The American is riding a four-fight win streak including victories in Bellator and Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, and his only loss in the last three years is to rising star Curtis Millender. Still, I can’t pick Holland here. Santos is just such a beast and has so much more experience, and I think he gets another big knockout win here. Pick: Thiago Santos Bantamweight bout: Pedro Munhoz (-240) vs Brett Johns (+200) Munhoz (15-3, 1 NC) is 31 and he’s 5-3, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian had his four-fight win streak snapped by a close decision loss to John Dodson in his last fight, but he remains one of the most dangerous bantamweights in the game due to his patented guillotine choke. Johns (15-1) is 26 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Welshman looked super impressive in his first three UFC bouts but Johns was dominated in the grappling by Aljamain Sterling in his last fight to lose his undefeated record. Despite the loss, though, I still believe in Johns. I think Munhoz is a solid fighter but I’m not ready to write Johns off just yet and given these big odds, I’ll take Johns to get the upset with a decision win. Pick: Brett Johns Bantamweight bout: Ricky Simon (-120) vs Montel Jackson (+100) Simon (13-1) is 25 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The American won via submission in controversial fashion against Merab Dvalishvili in his UFC debut to run his win streak to six straight fights. Jackson (3-0) is 26 and he’s making his UFC debut. The American is coming off of a TKO win on the Contender Series which got him signed to the UFC. I really like both of these guys as prospects but given Simon’s UFC experience and just overall experience advantage I have to pick him here, and he probably wins a decision. Pick: Ricky Simon Featherweight bout: Sheymon da Silva Moraes (-110) vs Matt Sayles (-110) Moraes (9-2) is 27 and he’s 0-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian had a solid run in WSOF before joining the UFC and getting submitted by Zabit Magomedsharipov in his debut. Sayles (7-1) is 24 and he’s making his UFC debut. The American is coming off of a TKO win over Yazan Hajeh on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series to get into the UFC. I am really high on Sayles and I think he’ll have a big advantage on the ground in this fight. I think he gets Moraes to the floor and taps him out for the submission win. Pick: Matt Sayles Flyweight bout: Jose Torres (+110) vs Alex Perez (-130) Perez (20-4) is 26 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The American was signed to the UFC after a win on the Contender Series and has since gone on to beat Carls John de Tomas and Eric Shelton in the Octagon. He has won seven straight fights overall. Torres (8-0) is 25 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The American knocked out Jarred Brooks in his UFC debut with a slam to continue his torrid unbeaten run. Both guys are solid young prospects but I like Torres here for the upset. Given all the hype behind him I thought he would be a big favorite here so it’s nice to get him at a dog price. Give me Torres via submission. Pick: Jose Torres Bantamweight bout: Kyung Ho Kang (+175) vs Ricardo Ramos (-210) Ramos (11-1) is 22 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian has been super impressive so far in the UFC with a vicious KO win over Aiemann Zahabi and a decision win over Michinori Tanaka and at such a young age the sky is the limit for this kid. Kang (14-7, 1 NC) is 30 and he’s 3-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The South Korean is currently riding a three-fight win streak with a submission win over Guido Cannetti in his last fight after returning from a four-year mandatory military service layoff. I’m really excited for this fight but I have to go with Ramos to get the win due to his upside and Kang’s inactivity in recent years. Pick: Ricardo Ramos Strawweight bout: Danielle Taylor (+210) vs Weili Zhang (-250) Zhang (16-1) is 28 and she’s making her UFC debut. The China native has won 16 straight fights since losing in her pro MMA debut, and her win streak caught the eyes of the UFC matchmakers. Even though she hasn’t really fought anyone notable, she has been finishing everyone in her path. Taylor (9-3) is 28 and she’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American has not been impressive in the UFC so far as all of her fights have been lackluster decisions and she has shown no ability to finish a fight. Despite her lack of UFC experience, I think you have to fade Taylor and take Zhang to win the fight. Pick: Weili Zhang Bantamweight bout: Marlon Vera (-500) vs Wuliji Buren (+330) Vera (10-5-1) is 25 and he’s 4-4 in the UFC. The Ecuador native had a nice three-fight win streak going there with a big knockout win over Brad Pickett included, but he has lost two straight fights to Douglas Silva de Andrade and John Lineker to set him back in line at 135lbs. Buren (11-5) is 28 and he’s 0-1 in the UFC. The China native lost a decision to Rolando Dy in his UFC debut, and he has really no quality wins to speak of otherwise. This is a huge mismatch and Vera should be able to finish Buren rather quickly in the fight. Pick: Marlon Vera Last event: 7-6 2018 picks year-to-date: 171-103 (62%) Final 2017 tally: 282-171, 3 No Contest (64%)
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 [Full Card Predictions]
TJ Dillashaw vs. Cody Garbrandt: Dillashaw [32:54] Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo: Johnson [29:02] Renato 'Moicano' Carneiro vs. Cub Swanson: 'Moicano' [26:56] Polyana Viana vs. JJ Aldrich: Aldrich [24:56] Thiago Santos vs. Kevin Holland: Holland [23:19] Pedro Munhoz vs. Brett Johns: Munhoz [19:46] Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon: Jackson [18:05] Bethe Correia vs. Irene Aldana: Aldana [16:18] Sheymon Moraes vs. Matt Sayles: Sayles [14:20] Jose Torres vs. Alex Perez: Perez [11:17] Kyung Ho Kang vs. Ricardo Ramos: Ramos [7:55] Danielle Taylor vs. Weili Zhang: Taylor [5:51] Marlon Vera vs. Wuliji Buren: Vera [3:25]
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