Bet Scorum is sucking me back to betting faster than I can control it, but I don't mind it because the platform is amazing and I also enjoy betting against people I know, so it is not only about money but also about showing who is the better expert. And even though I was lucky with my previous bets in Bundesliga, I will not pretend that I know that league good enough to tip you anything. However, I do know one or two things about the Premier League. Wolverhampton - Liverpool match opens the 18th matchday this Friday, and I can see a lot of juicy bets in that game. Make sure you place those bets at Scorum Bet. Here is the link for the game:

Wolverhampton - Liverpool

My pick

As much as I hate to admit the fact that betting against Liverpool is the right thing to do in this match, I have to stay objective and tell you the truth. This time, there is a huge value betting for Wolves victory or even better Wolves no to lose the game. For Wolves not to lose, you can get 2.6 odds. That is amazing. With all honesty, I do fear to see Liverpool losing points against Wolves more than I did fear when they played against Manchester United. All that said, I think there is one better offer on the market. The game should be open for many reasons, and I expect to see at least 3 goals if not more.

My Bet: Total Goals Over 2.5 @1.85+ (the odds should get better before the match)

Wolverhampton's form

After a great start of the season, Wolves lost their form in late October, and it lasted throughout November. However, Wolves look much better now, and I think that victory against Chelsea 2 weeks ago boosted Wolves' confidence and got them back on the winning track. Since that victory, Wolves played 2 more games and collected all 6 points which helped them to climb into the 7th position in the Premier League only leaving the top 6 clubs in front. I don't think that anyone could expect a better result from the Portuguese coach Espirito, who still heavily relies on players from Portugal, making Wolverhampton one of the most interesting and unique teams in the Premier League.

What interests us the most, however, is Wolverhampton's over/under statistics. I must admit that they are not great and Wolves often build their game on the defensive end. In the last 10 games, Wolves only had 4 games with 3 or more goals which we need for out bet to win. However, things are shifting now a little as 3 out of 4 last games ended with at least 3 goals. And I think that Wolves' fans should thank their striker Jimenez first. That guy is becoming one of the favorite strikers to have on the Fantasy Premier League as he is collecting points almost every game. Doherty is another guy who is exceeding all the expectations so far and keeps finding a way to score goals against all odds. Anyway, we will get back to that soon.

Liverpool's form

I don't think there is a lot to tell about Liverpool's form this season except for the fact that it was always wonderful so far. Of course, Liverpool had some awful games (I have the game against Crvena Zvezda in mind) but in general, the Reds became that team which finds a way to provide the desired result even when things are not going in its way. That's what winners do, and at this point, I think Liverpool are the favorites to win the Premier League. All 4 losses this season happened outside of the Premier League (3 in the Champions League and one against Chelsea in the Cup game). Those losses don't matter now as Liverpool got to the playoffs in the Champions League and stand first in the Premier League. Klopp couldn't ask for a better result before the Boxing day. On top of all that, Liverpool come to Wolverhampton after two impressive victories against Napoli and Manchester United (it was the first time when Jose Mourinho's final game before getting sacked was played against Klopp). Even though I think that the game against Wolves will be hard, I am sure that Liverpool will be as ready as possible.

As for the over/under form, Liverpool finished 5 out of the last 10 matches with at least 3 goals scored in the game. It's not the best result for our bet, but I wouldn't take these stats too seriously because some of the games were played in the Champions League (the dynamics are totally different in there). Also, those derbies against Everton are always difficult and usually don't show the true faces of the teams. On top of that, Mo Salah is back to his last year's form, meaning that we can expect at least a few goals only from him. And to end my case here, I must remind you that 1:0 victory against Napoli should have ended at least with 4 or 5 more goals, but Liverpool kept wasting their opportunities.

The Match

I can see a few different scenarios how this match will go. There is a chance that Wolves will try to defend one point and play as slow as possible (Jose Mourinho would approve that) and that would hurt our bet. However, I have a feeling that Wolves will try to go for all 3 points here as they do feel great at the moment and their results prove that. Also, with so many talented players up front, Espirito understands that he cannot allow himself to simply defend.

On top of that, Liverpool is exactly the team you don't want to try keeping 0:0 against. In 24 games this season, Liverpool did not score in 3 games only, of which 2 were played in the Champions League where Klopp sometimes plays different players and have other priorities. In the Premier League, only Manchester City managed to keep their sheets clean against Liverpool. With all due respect, I don't think that Wolves are even close to that level and they understand that as well. So, I am pretty sure that Espirito will tell his guys that the only way to secure at least 1 point against Liverpool is to score.

As for Liverpool, they will treat the game against Wolverhampton just the same as most of the games in the Premier League this season. Klopp and his guys understand that they are the favorites and they have to win games against mid-table teams if they want to win the league. That means, that Liverpool won't be defending for too long and will try to push Wolves to the edge from the first minute of the game. I do love to see the high pressure which Klopp uses against weaker teams as it leads to goals more often than not.

There might be some changes in both teams' starting XI because of the cruel December's schedule. However, that is a good sign for our over 2.5 goals bet. Why? Well, Liverpool played with quite a defensive XI against Manchester United. That means that Shaqiri will probably start the game against Wolverhampton. We already saw how much creativity and freedom he can bring to the game when he scored 2 goals against Manchester United. I wouldn't mind 2 more against Wolves as well. As for Wolves, they did not play Traore at all against Bournemouth, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start the game against Liverpool. Even though Traore is still a loose cannon, his talent and physical abilities are undeniable. His presence to the game would give us a huge advantage to witness at least 3 goals in this game.

As I said, Wolves play at home, and they demonstrate a good form lately so if I had to pick any other bet, I would probably go for Wolves no to lose. At @2.6 odds there is too much value at that bet for anyone to ignore. But, let's stick to the over 2.5 analysis.

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You must understand that there is no such thing as a winning or losing bet. Even 1.01 odds sometimes loses just like 501 odds can win. As a bettor, you want to find the odds which have value. That doesn't mean that all those bets will end up winning. However, if you keep picking value bets and stay disciplined, you might be one of a few people who profits from betting. So, because I don't believe in winning bets, I feel that I have to provide possible threats for my bet to fail. So, here are my final thoughts.

Strengths of the bet:

  • Matches in late December are always full of action and goals. There is something about that time which makes teams play more aggressive and open football. That might have something to do with the fact that teams in the Premier League usually play 10 games in December, which means that many players don't have enough energy and get sloppy sometimes.
  • Liverpool have serious problems with injuries, especially when it comes to defense. Gomez, Matip, and Alexander-Arnold will probably miss the match against Wolves which is very good for our bet. The fact that Klopp had to play Clyne against MU proves it all. Of course, Clyne is a good player, but he is far from Gomez or Arnold. 
  • A lot of attacking players on both sides are in form at the moment. Jimenez, Salah, Shaqiri, Doherty (he might not be the attacking type, but he knows how to score) might all get some goals by their individual efforts. Talking about individual efforts, take a look at Traore if he gets a chance to play - that guy will cost $100 million soon.
  • Both teams have fast players who love to go on fast breaks. I do think that we will see at least a few goals from fast breaks in this game. Liverpool should be controlling the ball for the majority of the game, and that should provide Wolves with chances to go on a fast break. If Wolves choose to take control of the ball, well, Mane and Salah will be deadly.
  • The match will be played on Friday, meaning that both teams had less time to prepare for the match. Also, some players might not be used to playing on such an unusual time. It doesn't sound like much, but these little factors might be important. On top of that, many players might start to feel fatigue already after a marathon of games. Usually, players tend to save energy and rest when they have to defend. That is good for our bet.

Weaknesses of the bet:

  • I have already seen a few times this season that Liverpool have problems scoring from the possession game. They prefer fast breaks. That probably has to do something with lack of players who can create opportunities for their teammates in the midfield. Wijnaldum, Milner, Fabinho area all great players but creativity is not their strongest part. I think Shaqiri and Keita should get more playing time against weaker opponents because they are the best choices at the moment. Sadly, Keita is not settled yet, but I am sure he will show his true colors by the end of the season.
  • Wolverhampton know how to defend. They already kept a clean sheet against Manchester City this season. However, that happened at the beginning of the season when all teams were still looking for their best form. Currently, Wolves have conceded in 8 out of the last 10 games. And yet, they still know how to defend against strong teams. That is a little worrying. However, a fast goal from any side would fix that problem.
  • There is a chance that Wolves will decide to play a completely defensive match, giving Liverpool all the possession and trying to defend for as long as possible. This tactic would not be in favor of our bet. However, a fast Liverpool's goal could turn the tables.